Epstein Secrets

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payroll

Eye on the Market | March 15, 2012 J.P Morgan Topics: Is US data as good as it looks? Is Chinese data as bad as it looks? Is European data as bizarre as it looks? What a diff’rence a day makes.

analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather, the Lehman shock and other factors, payroll growth does not look quite as good as reported, but is still positive. The trend is supported by the latest Manpower

oduction Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views ex

Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother dataareas of Feb.2012. Mic

ere is China heading? There is a roiling epistemological debate as to whether China's current decline is structural or cyclical. As an aside, two of JP Morgan's investment banking analysts (one an economist, the other an equity market strategist) have taken opposite sides of the debate, which is in and of it

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further. the views expressed

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank. N.A. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC(JPMS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchase

) is not intended or written to be wed. and cannot be wed. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPAforgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is nor a licensed insurance

analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather, the Lehman shock and other factors, payroll growth does not look quite as good as reported, but is still positive. The trend is supported by the latest Manpowe

2012 Portfolio Strategy Thomas J Lee, CPAAc J.P. Morgan Securities LLC hor J.P. Morgan Secunties LLC Economic and Policy Research Malcolm Barr JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. London Branch Rates Strategy Pavan Wadhwa J.P. Morgan Secunues Ltd. Global Asset Allocation Nikolaos Pani irtzoglou Proposed Agenda: J.P. Morg

Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank. •., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X) wh

rage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst's coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan's research website, J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of April 3, 2012 Overweight Neutral (buy) (hold) Underweight (sell) I.P

2 J.P.Morgan • Current thinking by investors; • Why you remain risk-off and what catalysts you see over the summer; • Are we heading towards a Lehman moment? • Comment on ratings action by Moody's on banks; Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (Head of European Asset Allocation): • Why QE seems to be losin

other industrial commodities to pick-up sharply as we head into the summer and through the second half of the year. Jan Loeys (AC) EFTA00630376 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA John Normand J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Nikolaos Pani irtzoglou J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Seamus Mac Gorain J.P. f,,lorgan Securities Ltd.

res, including price charts, related to the companies recommended in this report are available in the PDF attachment, through the search function on J.P. Morgan's website Impslimmjptnorgan.comAisclosuresjsp, or by calling this toll free number (1-800-477-0406). J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with c

ngest connection (contagion) comes through banking and energy, as all economic sectors and regions are touched by these two propagators. This is how Lehman and Greece became global disasters despite their small size. And this is how oil shocks have preceded most recessions. A Chinese hard landing affect

and commercial bank. In 2006, he was recognized as the Capital Markets CIO of the Year by Bankers Magazine. From 1992-2001, Mr. Torgovnik was with JP Morgan in a variety of technology roles within their Fixed Income Derivatives business, including Global Head of Fixed Income Derivatives Technology and F

s Commission, The Center, 99 Queens Road Central, Central Hong Kong, Tel. +852 3965 3222. • Millennium Capital Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. ("MCM Singapore"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Millennium International Management, which is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, 80 Raffles Place, UO

clients (specifically referencing three particular investors), who were not made aware of the risks of these products and failed to inform dients of Lehman's financial condition prior to Lehman's bankruptcy. It was also alleged that the firm's recommendations to a small number of New Hampshire residents

be) are not obtained from such operation; or d. a designated person22. The Master Partnership, Millennium Management, the Investment Manager and MCM Singapore reserve the right to request such information as any of the Master Partnership, Millennium Management, the Investment Manager and MCM Singapore (as

ss EE-II, FF-II, MM-II, NN-II, EE-III, FF-III, MM-III and NN-III interests, except that they will be affected by any gains or losses attributable to Lehman Exposure (as defined, and further discussed, below in this Appendix in "Treatment of Millennium USA's Exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and

of making a personal profit (or incurring a personal loss). The ownership structure of MCP UK may change from time to time without notice. Each of MCM Singapore, MCM FIK, and MCM Asia's Tokyo Branch (collectively, the "Asia Entities") is owned by Millennium International Management. The capital to establish

clients (specifically referencing three particular investors), who were not made aware of the risks of these products and failed to inform dients of Lehman's financial condition prior to Lehman's bankruptcy. It was also alleged that the firm's recommendations to a small number of New Hampshire residents

be) are not obtained from such operation; or d. a designated person22. The Master Partnership, Millennium Management, the Investment Manager and MCM Singapore reserve the right to request such information as any of the Master Partnership, Millennium Management, the Investment Manager and MCM Singapore (as

ss EE-II, FF-II, MM-II, NN-II, EE-III, FF-III, MM-III and NN-III interests, except that they will be affected by any gains or losses attributable to Lehman Exposure (as defined, and further discussed, below in this Appendix in "Treatment of Millennium USA's Exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and

of making a personal profit (or incurring a personal loss). The ownership structure of MCP UK may change from time to time without notice. Each of MCM Singapore, MCM FIK, and MCM Asia's Tokyo Branch (collectively, the "Asia Entities") is owned by Millennium International Management. The capital to establish

clients (specifically referencing three particular investors), who were not made aware of the risks of these products and failed to inform dients of Lehman financial condition prior to Lehman's bankruptcy. It was also alleged that the firm's recommendations to a small number of New Hampshire residents t