Epstein Secrets

=== 6m change in 30y real rates (RHS, inverted == USGGT10Y Index (R1) 5y5 | rates scale, %4) yoy real ra Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, US Treasury The BAML multi asset strategy index is not representative of all isk-parity funds. Si : BofA Merrill Lynch Global R h Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Glo

19). First, given USD/JPY’s significant correlation with 10Y yield differentials (>60%}, the anchoring of 10Y yields will further weigh on the Yen as US Treasury yields rise. Second, further Japanese fiscal stimulus will successfully lower real yields through higher breakeven rates of inflation while nominal y

nch Securities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merri DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by ill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A. regulated by Comissdo de Va

rom a low-yield environment (REITs) outperformed the converse (banks, insurance; Chart 3). However, we expect conditions to reverse into 2017. We see US Treasury yields rising and Japanese core CPI inflation recovering to +1.4% yoy by 2018 and core-core to +1.1% yoy. Stronger inflation and higher foreign yield

rities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisi6n Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (B

naged to last just for one day after the US election. The insurance sector has been the best performer since the US election on the back of a steeper US Treasury curve and higher rates. Michael Hartnett observes “violent rotation out of deflation to inflation plays”, including a move from REITs to US banks. Th

rities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (B

Institution has called the “fiscal fights of the Obama administration.” The first fiscal fight resulted in the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) downgrade of US Treasury debt in August 2011. The equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, dropped about 19% between April and October of 2011. Taken together, the

lica mientras no sean inscritos en el Registro de Valores correspondiente. Dubai: Goldman Sachs International ("GSI"} is authorised and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority ("DFSA’} in the DIFC and the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Co

5-25 -23~—s -20 -19 25-26 Other assets -4 “1-11-10 11-1 -11 -11— 11 memo: Identified Saudi Arabian and Middle Eastern holdings in the US Saudi Arabia US Treasury (UST) holdings 51 46 8 69 68 £76 80 91 109 Long-term securities 50 45 82 68 67 74 78 88 107 Short-term securities 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 Saudi Arabia hold

Menkul Degerler AS., regulated by the Capital Markets Board of Turkey; Merrill Lynch (DIFC): Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.A.S.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (

nonprofit educational facilities Education 660 Special Blue Cross/Blue Shield tax benefits Health 630 Source: BofAML US Equity & Quant Strategy, US Department of Treasury Immediate capex expensing should provide some initial cash tax benefits The shift to the immediate expensing of capital expenditures should provide

rities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (B

by UBS AG, authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. A member of the London Stock Exchange. This publ

uld spike. Note: Scenarios refer to global economic scenarios (see slide 7) What we're watching Why it matters Core market yields The direction of US Treasury and German Bund yields are important for EM fixed income spreads, especially for USD- and EUR-denominated bonds. Key date: Dec 6, European Central Ba

eign wealth funds, pensions, and other institutional investors that we view as highly unlikely to default. Our methodology starts with the 10-year US treasury yield, given the similar duration to the life of the draw down funds management fees. We then add an appropriate credit spread on top of the 10-year

vestors only. The information in Morgan Stanley Research is being communicated by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (the DFSA), and is directed at Professional Clients only, as defined by the DFSA. The financial products or financial services to which this researc

s within the hypothetical risk parity Dec-12 through 27-Jun-16. Equity, fixed income, and commodity investment are represented by the S&P500, 10-Year US Treasury components within the hypothetical risk parity investment are Bonds, and the S&P GSCI Index respectively. Risk parity represented by the S&P500, 10-Y

h Menkul Degerler AS., regulated by the Capital Markets Board of Turkey; Merrill Lynch (DIFC): Merrill Lynch Intemational (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (B