Epstein Secrets

ld reduce the appreciation pressure. Moreover, a band-widening should, if anything, lead to CNY weakne

however, heavy positioning and potential transitory increase in risk aversion could induce a temporary break in the appreciation trend. Figure 1: LatAm and Asia FX on overvaluation territory environment of reduced volatility. Nevertheless, as the deterioration of fundamentals slowly spreads from t

• rgim • Real *erect I7 Anal ratm•tre 13 dew band* Swat 1 Also, despite recent inflows. positioni

utsara Bank la When we narrow the focus on domestic developments, valuations or enamel vulnerabilities we believe that COP, Nit, and ILS will lag. LatAm is naturally most exposed to a China slowdown (less so MXN in this case). Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM.

ater. This time, we expect a sharp selloff with an eventual recovery. Our bearish view on LatAm credits in particular is driven by 1) positioning in LatAm is heavier than in EMEA or Asia — watch outflows from IG crossover investors who will rethink their EM IG investments; 2) their exposure to commoditi

the above mentioned global factors, for the last two years and the years 2013-2014 for the sake of comparison (Chart 64). We find that currencies in LatAm and EEMEA are more exposed to global factors than in Asia. Interestingly, LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in commodity prices

5 10 20 45 a= BofA-ML SGD NEER 5 === lower end of band 10 ——= mid-point 0 —— upper end of band eS & es &