Epstein Secrets

n asset stocks accumulated by Switzerland or oil-rich Norway, both well over 100% of GDP. reflect grea

ral rise in saving preferences post-crisis, we argue that Europeans now have to become net creditors to the rest of the world. • We find that the Eurozone's NIIP needs to rise from -10% of GDP to at least 30% for Europe's current account surplus to become sustainable. We estimate that this adjustment

nt that in America today the gap between the very rich and everyone else is wider• than at any time sin

consumed with Presidential Politics or who was eliminated on the latest episode of X FACTOR, few Americans noticed that somehow it appears that the Eurozone will avoid coming apart and the Euro collapsing German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday that Greece (the most serious basket case in Europ

for the last two centuries. Almost all the other rich countries have followed a different path. In the

tem in 1992, or the collapse of Japan into deflation in the early 1990's. At the time of writing it is clear that the central banks of the USA, the Eurozone, Japan, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and others are all following their own significantly different policies, based primarily on experience and intu

ctor Matheus Dibo Vice President Mary Catherine Rich Vice President This material represents the view

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit

cronyism and, in a few places, grinding poverty. Rich and poor alike lived in fear of the secret police

ions of the indignados, as they are called in Spain, and the aganaktismenoi (the outraged), as they say in Greece, are growing. And it's not just the Eurozone. Every single major project of the European Union is faltering. France and Italy are suggesting that the achievement of the Schengen area, in which 2

r more than a year now, Merkel has attempted to find the narrow — perhaps nonexistent — line where the minimum that can be done to save the embattled Eurozone periphery meets the maximum she thinks German public opinion will bear. She has then tried to win her Eurozone partners to that course. So far, it ha

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

would advise that EM portfolios tilt toward cash-rich and faster- growing Asia. Country preferences wi

rowing disparity of income and wealth between the rich and the poor (Chart 2), and the loss of national

ad | 16 November 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014735 --- PAGE BREAK --- target. It is possible that Trump’s election could weaken fiscal discipline in the Eurozone over the medium term, but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB may disappoint in the December meeting by either not extending q

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

would advise a tilt in EM portfolios toward cash-rich and faster- growing Asia. Emerging market countr