Epstein Secrets

LPF&S [email protected] First came Brexit, then Donald Trump’s election as the president of the most powerful co

17 Short US Sy rates — Two and a half Fed hikes priced by the rates market for 2017- 18 are not consistent with aggressive fiscal easing promised by Trump. Bankof America Merrill Lynch 16 November 2016 Corrected FX and Rates Global 2. Short US 10y real rates — After the violent repricing of inflatio

d’s tightening cycles. 6. Buy USD call/CNH put — President Trump will need a weak USD, but President Xi needs a we

16 November 2016 05:30AM EST HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014731 --- PAGE BREAK --- Introduction David Woo MLPF&S [email protected] First came Brexit, then Donald Trump’s election as the president of the most powerful country in the world. The world has changed. Possibly irrevocably so. These ground shifts have been b

ffect on MXN We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump’s effects on the Mexican peso. Our analysis suggest

Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN Key takeaways ¢ We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso ¢ Our analysis suggests t

ohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN Key takeaways ¢ We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso ¢ Our analysis suggests the exchange rate is perhaps as much as 15% undervalued « We remain neutral for now g

n; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comis

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

n; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil}: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comis

long term. Since the presidential election, the ’trump tax rally’ that has arguably lifted the broader S

he DSP Merrill Lynch Limited, Il Lynch (Israel): Merrill an Federation; Merrill Lynch Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regu Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comissdo de V

a recent interview with the Financial Times that international tourism to the US (Expedia’s key market) has decelerated following the introduction of Trump’s travel bans, which may be a downside risk to 1Q bookings and revenues. This mirrors ForwardKeys data from early March that after Trump’s executive

n; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil}: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comis

ntion) may still find that option markets are currently pricing too little of a move. However, as we have recently argued the debate about whether a Trump win would be good or bad for markets coupled with the inability to exactly pinpoint real risks are likely headwinds to a sizeable market shock. 8 Gl

y; Merrill Lynch (DIFC): Merrill Lynch Intemational (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil}: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A, regulated by Comiss