Epstein Secrets

e trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dr

Global Cross Asset Strategy —- Year Ahead Bankof America The Trump inflection ape ce Investment Strategy 30 November 2016 Corrected Key takeaways ee « Market response to Trump is logical but moves have been frontlo

am Page for Full List of Contributors 10Y real rates. CNH a hedge vs trade risk. Trump extends some trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dramatic moves. Som1e of those moves are extending trends that had already started — higher yields, hi

e. That is particularly the case if the Fed under President Trump is made more hawkish as our economists think it p

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

cional Bancaria y de Valores; Merrill Lynch (Argentina): Merrill Lynch Argentina SA, regulated by Comisién Nacional de Valores; Merrill Lynch japan): Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co, Ltd., regulated by the Financial Services Agency; Merrill Lynch (Seoul): Merrill Lynch International Incorporated (Seoul Branch) regulated by the Financia

ital allocation update, tax reform, rising interest rates. Latest report: MCO rally has just begun; beneficiaries of the non-Health Care upside from Trump 1Q risks: Risks to the downside are courts not approving the HUM acquisition, lower- than-expected membership growth and higher than expected cost t

cional Bancaria y de Valores; Merrill Lynch (Argentina): Merrill Lynch Argentina SA, regulated by Comisién Nacional de Valores; Merrill Lynch japan): Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co, Ltd., regulated by the Financial Services Agency; Merrill Lynch (Seoul): Merrill Lynch International Incorporated (Seoul Branch) regulated by the Financia

a recent interview with the Financial Times that international tourism to the US (Expedia’s key market) has decelerated following the introduction of Trump’s travel bans, which may be a downside risk to 1Q bookings and revenues. This mirrors ForwardKeys data from early March that after Trump’s executive

cional Bancaria y de Valores; Merrill Lynch (Argentina): Merrill Lynch Argentina SA, regulated by Comisidn Nacional de Valores; Merrill Lynch japan): Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co, Ltd., regulated by the Financial Services Agency; Merrill Lynch (Seoul): Merrill Lynch International Incorporated (Seoul Branch) regulated by the Financia

ntion) may still find that option markets are currently pricing too little of a move. However, as we have recently argued the debate about whether a Trump win would be good or bad for markets coupled with the inability to exactly pinpoint real risks are likely headwinds to a sizeable market shock. 8 Gl

cional Bancaria y de Valores; Merrill Lynch (Argentina): Merrill Lynch Argentina SA, regulated by Comisién Nacional de Valores; Merrill Lynch Japan): Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co, Ltd. regulated by the Financial Services Agency; Merrill Lynch (Seoul): Merrill Lynch International ncorporated (Seoul Branch) regulated by the Financial