Epstein Secrets

e trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dr

Global Cross Asset Strategy —- Year Ahead Bankof America The Trump inflection ape ce Investment Strategy 30 November 2016 Corrected Key takeaways ee « Market response to Trump is logical but moves have been frontlo

am Page for Full List of Contributors 10Y real rates. CNH a hedge vs trade risk. Trump extends some trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dramatic moves. Som1e of those moves are extending trends that had already started — higher yields, hi

e. That is particularly the case if the Fed under President Trump is made more hawkish as our economists think it p

% in 2017, with looser fiscal policy and still easy monetary policy in key countries. e And last but not least, we expect that while President-elect Trump’s initial policy measures with respect to tariffs and trade agreements risk jolting financial markets, as a self-described “deal maker” he will likel

isis highs. % 700 639 600 500 + 400 300 + 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream. The anemic (but steady) pace of this recovery has fueled a debate about its causes. The theories fall into six categories: e A “hangover” from the

tem, October 3, 2016. itra Toossi, “A Century of ange: The U.S. Labor Force, 950-2050," Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2002. Donald J. Trump, “Remarks,” speech delivered at the New York Economic Club, September 15, 2016. Chair Janet L. Yellen, “Current Conditions and the Outlook or the U

or Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2002. Donald J. Trump, “Remarks,” speech delivered at the New Yor

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

0 066 = G/99—s—«<OG/O2—sC«OG/OS.s«OG/OS=—OG/11 (06/14 06/96 8606/99) (OG/02—sCO6/NSsC«G/OSS(G/11 S(O /14 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSCI, IBES Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSC The other metric that illustrates the valuation overhang in Europe is the ri

ion: Tension between the US and European Union eased significantly after a July 2018 deal between European Commission President Juncker and President Trump to “work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods”. The coast is not totally clear give

between European Commission President Juncker and President Trump to “work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-t

ients maintain their strategic allocation to US equities. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026905 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “Fed Chair Powell Sees ‘Remarkably Positive Set of E

ion: Tension between the US and European Union eased significantly after a July 2018 deal between European Commission President Juncker and President Trump to “work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods”. The coast is not totally clear give

between European Commission President Juncker and President Trump to “work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-t

ation to US equities. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026920 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bank for International Settlements, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver, International Monetary Fund, Teneo Intelligence. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “F