Epstein Secrets

e trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dr

Global Cross Asset Strategy —- Year Ahead Bankof America The Trump inflection ape ce Investment Strategy 30 November 2016 Corrected Key takeaways ee « Market response to Trump is logical but moves have been frontlo

am Page for Full List of Contributors 10Y real rates. CNH a hedge vs trade risk. Trump extends some trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dramatic moves. Som1e of those moves are extending trends that had already started — higher yields, hi

e. That is particularly the case if the Fed under President Trump is made more hawkish as our economists think it p

% in 2017, with looser fiscal policy and still easy monetary policy in key countries. e And last but not least, we expect that while President-elect Trump’s initial policy measures with respect to tariffs and trade agreements risk jolting financial markets, as a self-described “deal maker” he will likel

ce should stay in the European Union, and, should she win, questions about the viability of the Eurozone will surface immediately.°* While polls show Fillon well ahead of Le Pen, polls have been wrong on the UK and Italian referenda and the US election. The Eurasia Group, for one, assigns a 30% probabilit

tem, October 3, 2016. itra Toossi, “A Century of ange: The U.S. Labor Force, 950-2050," Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2002. Donald J. Trump, “Remarks,” speech delivered at the New York Economic Club, September 15, 2016. Chair Janet L. Yellen, “Current Conditions and the Outlook or the U

or Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2002. Donald J. Trump, “Remarks,” speech delivered at the New Yor

2 PM Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Fwd: My Thoughts on Currencies High The smartest/most amusing piece of research I have read so far on Trump/global economy. You should pass on to DJT brain trust on economy/markets ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Eurizon SLJ Capital Limited

] Fwd: My Thoughts on Currencies High The smartest/most amusing piece of research I have read so far on Trump/global economy. You should pass on to DJT brain trust on economy/markets ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Eurizon SLJ Capital Limited <[email protected]> Date: Tu

The doves at the Fed have been silenced as, under President Trump, the US policy mix will likely be less lop-sided

Party. In France, only 1 out of 20 people approves of Hollande’s performance. (3) The Presidential race in France is now between the Centre Right (Mr Fillon from the Republican Party) and the Far Right (Ms Le Pen from National Front). The pendulum in Europe, in my view, will swing to the right, and possib

European politics. Will Europe follow the route to populism (revolt from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets by the end of 2017 from a Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the Euro area’s two largest economies. We think investors will demand a higher risk premium until the French Elections

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour