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From: Joscha Bach To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Decision making Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 20:26:59 +0000 1. Does luck mean gambling, or getting the probabilitie
n? 2. What else tells you anything about the future? (The past also tells us how much is does not tell us about the future) Am 26.08.2015 um 16:23 schrieb jeffrey E. <[email protected]>: luck plays a role. 2, looking back ( bayesian ) might not tell you anthing about the future. On Wed, Aug 26, 2015 at 3:44 PM,
From: Joscha Bach To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Decision ma
bout the future) Am 26.08.2015 um 16:23 schrieb jeffrey E. <[email protected]>: luck plays a role. 2, l
bout the future) Am 26.08.2015 um 16:23 schrieb jeffrey E. <[email protected]>: luck plays a role. 2, lo
eliefs, and be able to outperform the vast majority of folks that relies on narratives (i.e. binary yes/no decisions about the facts in the world). Gigerenzer, Kahnemann and many others have shown that human brains are terrible of getting this intuitively right, to the point where an absence of fine-graine
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From: Joscha Bach To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2016 15:57:07 +0000 conjecture, probability is a force. I do not understand forces as pri
develop ideas and recruit students, but I should use the opportunity to get long uninterrupted stretches for writing. > On Jul 21, 2016, at 20:31, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: > I like the idea of a self organizing system of intelligence. . feedback. I suggest you focus on natural constraints.
From: Joscha Bach To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Date: Mon,
From: Joscha Bach To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Da
el machinery of the world, so when we try to understand money, power, etc., we switch from probabilistic models to causal narratives. For instance, Gigerenzer has shown that people tend to have difficulty at intuitively combining probabilities of the influences differ by an order of magnitude or more, so p
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From: Joscha Bach Sent: Monday, August 1, 2016 3:57 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: conjecture, probability is a =orce. </=iv> I do not understand =orces as primitives, or atomic properties. How do you envision =t?
o develop ideas and recruit students, but I should use the =pportunity to get long uninterrupted stretches for writing. > On Jul 21, 2016, at 20:31, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: > I like the idea of a self organizing system of intelligence. = feedback. I suggest you focus on natural =onstraints.
nt: Monday, August 1, 2016 3:57 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: conjecture, probability is a =or
Bach Sent: Monday, August 1, 2016 3:57 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: conjecture, probability
el machinery of the world, so when we try to understand money, =ower, etc., we switch from probabilistic models to causal narratives. =or instance, Gigerenzer has shown that people tend to have difficulty =t intuitively combining probabilities of the influences differ by an =rder of magnitude or more, so p
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From: "Jeffrey E." <[email protected]> To: Joscha Bach Subject
n? 2. What else tells you anything about the future? (The past also tells us how much is does not tell us about the future) Am 26.08.2015 um 16:23 schrieb jeffrey E. <[email protected]>: luck plays a role. 2 , looking back ( bayesian ) might not tell you anthing about the future. On Wed, Aug 26, 2015 at 3:44 PM
From: "Jeffrey E." <[email protected]> To: Joscha Bach Sub
eliefs, and be able to outperform the vast majority of folks that relies on narratives (i.e. binary yes/no decisions about the facts in the world). Gigerenzer, Kahnemann and many others have shown that human brains are terrible of getting this intuitively right, to the point where an absence of fine-graine
4 mentions1 same-page
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From: Joscha Bach < Sent: Wednesday, August 26, 2015 7:45 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Decision making Re motivation: Have you seen the recent movie "Ex Machina"= I liked it; one of the few Al movies that have not been dumb
Wednesday, August 26, 2015 7:45 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Decision making Re motivation: Have y
Sent: Wednesday, August 26, 2015 7:45 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Decision making Re motivation
beliefs, and be =ble to outperform the vast majority of folks that relies on narratives =i.e. binary yes/no decisions about the facts in the world). Gigerenzer, =ahnemann and many others have shown that human brains are terrible of =etting this intuitively right, to the point where an absence of =ine-grain
3 mentions1 same-page
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From: "Jeffrey E." <[email protected]> To: Joscha Bach <, Subj
From: "Jeffrey E." <[email protected]> To: Joscha Bach <,
eliefs, and be able to outperform the vast majority of folks that relies on narratives (i.e. binary yes/no decisions about the facts in the world). Gigerenzer, ICahnemann and many others have shown that human brains are terrible of getting this intuitively right, to the point where an absence of fine-grain
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