Epstein Secrets

the Fed recently "shallowed out" its trajectory for interest rates over the next few years; the other reason being the Fed's lower estimate of the NAIRU. Figure 5: Dollar strength will weigh on net exports for the foreseeable future to %99y 15 2 1975 199) 1565 1993 1995 2003 2005 2010 2015 .*&

eighted dollar (the current move from last summer) in the Federal Reserve Board's macroeconomic model of the US economy, often just referred to as FRB/US. All else being equal, the simulated shock causes real GDP growth to decrease by about -0.5 percentage points (or 50 basis points) and -0.8 percent

the Fed recently "shallowed out" its trajectory for interest rates over the next few years; the other reason being the Fed's lower estimate of the NAIRU. Figure 5: Dollar strength will weigh on net exports for the foreseeable future to %99y 15 1 2 1975 199) 1565 1993 1995 2003 2005 2010 2015 .

eighted dollar (the current move from last summer) in the Federal Reserve Board's macroeconomic model of the US economy, often just referred to as FRB/US. All else being equal, the simulated shock causes real GDP growth to decrease by about -0.5 percentage points (or 50 basis points) and -0.8 percent

th pick up over the period ahead. We see the unemployment rate falling into the mid-4% area over the next couple years, putting it noticeably below NAIRU, but not by enough to effect more than a gradual pickup in wage and price inflation. We see core PCE inflation returning to near 2% two years hence

he BOJ and the ECB are at very different stages of the business cycle and are pursuing expansionary monetary policies to lift inflation. What does FRB/US say? To gauge the implications of the strengthening dollar for monetary policy, we simulated a one-time, 16% shock to the real tradeweighted dolla