Epstein Secrets

atter cumulative fportfolio lows, bn Sfr -900 -700 -500 -300 -100 100 99 inflows outflows 250bn u/weight 02 05 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP 08 11 Swiss Franc Is Last "Safe Haven" To Turn 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Deutsche Ban

12 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 NZD/CAD Model - uses Dairy Futures, NatGas, Crude, CRB, rate differential, USD TWI, VIX Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 EFTA01464441 16 May 2813 FX Blueprint: Dashing Buck While both crosses have now fallen a long way relativ

87 1.22 1.25 1.25 1.25 - 1.22 1.22 1.22 7.48 7.30 7.20 7.10 - 7.51 7.54 7.61 8.45 8.20 8.10 8.00 - 8.47 8.49 8.54 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Hungary Indonesia IDR/USD 9,686 9,950 9,900 9,850 (Fwd. Rates) Malaysia MYR/USD 3.10 3.07 3.05 3.02 (Fwd. Rates) 3.12 3.13 3.16

EFTA01464491 1.5% 2.0% Figure 6: Record Negative Correlation Between Dollar and Stocks Reversing Suggests Regime Change 2y correlation between USD TWI and S&P500 using ly rolling returns using levels Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7 EFTA01464492 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives .Fig

rilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP 2017E Glencore 1Y CDS spread Grant Sporre, (44) 20 754 58170 Michael Hsueh, (44) 20 754 78015 EFTA01476156 Page 66 Deutsche Bank AG/London D

rg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Index USDTWI PPP Implied 20% Band 100 110 120 130 60 70 80 90 Figure 7: Dollar leads productivity USD TWI (dev from PPP implied, 12q lead, lhs) US Nonfarm Productivity (dev from trend) (rhs) 10 20 30 40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Correl (since 1982): 51%

87 1.23 1.25 1.25 1.24 - 1.23 1.23 1.23 7.86 7.35 7.25 7.15 - 7.88 7.91 7.97 8.58 8.25 8.05 8.00 - 8.60 8.62 8.66 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Emerging Europe Currency Czech Rep. EUR/CZK (Fwd. Rates) USD/CZK (Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentin

r has fallen substantially Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Figure 11: No clear relationship between USD TWI and UST purchases Figure 12: Net equity flows turn positive Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Page 2