Epstein Secrets

250bn u/weight 02 05 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP 08 11 Swiss Franc Is Last "Safe Hav

12 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 NZD/CAD Model - uses Dairy Futures, NatGas, Crude, CRB, rate differential, USD TWI, VIX Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 EFTA01464441 16 May 2813 FX Blueprint: Dashing Buck While both crosses have now fallen a long way relativ

s) 200 100% 150 100 50 0 20% 40% 60% 80% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg The significance of the USD/JPY turn higher should not be understated. It is perhaps the only currency pair that has captured all the major macro

EFTA01464491 1.5% 2.0% Figure 6: Record Negative Correlation Between Dollar and Stocks Reversing Suggests Regime Change 2y correlation between USD TWI and S&P500 using ly rolling returns using levels Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7 EFTA01464492 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives .Fig

est *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommend

rg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Index USDTWI PPP Implied 20% Band 100 110 120 130 60 70 80 90 Figure 7: Dollar leads productivity USD TWI (dev from PPP implied, 12q lead, lhs) US Nonfarm Productivity (dev from trend) (rhs) 10 20 30 40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Correl (since 1982): 51%

.0 130.0 140.0 80.0 90.0 1.0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: DB FX Research Source: DB FX Research *Sources: BIS, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank. Notes: For details on model, see Exchange Rate Perspectives, Jan-13. BEER model is relative PPP adjusted for terms-of-trade and pro

r has fallen substantially Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Figure 11: No clear relationship between USD TWI and UST purchases Figure 12: Net equity flows turn positive Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Page 2