Epstein Secrets

s) 200 100% 150 100 50 0 20% 40% 60% 80% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg The significance of the USD/JPY turn higher should not be understated. It is perhaps the only currency pair that has captured all the major macro

algebra. EM graphs available upon request. Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01464509 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Figure 6: USD/CAD is cheap vs. BEER FV Figure 7: AUD/USD is quite expensive vs. BEER FV Source: DB FX Research Source: DB FX Research Figure 8: NZD/USD is very exp

90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Vertical lines indicate the peaks in easing for long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit,

y unchanged, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD seen at 0.90, 128 and 1.27 respectively. We anticipate extremes in the likes of AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD at 0.62, 0.53 I nd 1.40 respectively. In macro terms, how 2016 shapes up will be heavily influenced by whether the main macro driver is the Fed or

.0 130.0 140.0 80.0 90.0 1.0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: DB FX Research Source: DB FX Research *Sources: BIS, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank. Notes: For details on model, see Exchange Rate Perspectives, Jan-13. BEER model is relative PPP adjusted for terms-of-trade and pro

CLP PLN SEK GBP KRW JPY INR ZAR ARS EFTA01464349 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 6: USD/CAD is cheap vs. BEER FV Figure 7: AUD/USD is quite expensive vs. BEER FV 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 CAD BEER Fair Value Spot 80 82 84 86 88 90 9