Epstein Secrets

h Recession Irrlplied ERP kris) meempar Train; PE Ohs) - Avg ERP 4% — • — Avg ERP 197582 . 3.5% • Avg OE 15.9 Scam. thursoN an SIP. AM Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 12% 10% " 8% 0 :6% 4% 2% 0% J Page l CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119286 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265470 E

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights 5% delineates healthy from unhealthy S&P EPS growth and supports an 18 PE Our 1 year target of 18x trailing S&P EPS uses a 5.5% real and 7.5% nominal CoE. EPS is retained, so real EPS g must = real CoE - div yld to justify PE = 1/real CoE. [Figure 40: S&P fair va

0.1% 4.9% 41% 41% 5.6% 2.3% 17% 69% -5.1% -9.4% 67% 17% 6.7% .6.7% 0% 100% -1.0% 2.0% 63% 30% 9.8% 2.3% 47% 63% -0.2% -4.2% Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 11 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0059414 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205598 EFTA01367801

uity Insights 10 EPS tracker: Good EPS beats, lots of sales misses; sales down y/y, but margin expansion helped EPS up y/y 487 companies or 98% of S&P EPS reported. Wok beat on EPS with a wtd avg beat of 6.2% (6.7% ex Fin), but only 32% beat on sales with a wtd avg miss of -1.0% (-1.4% ex Fin). The wt

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. -v Figure 4B: List of DB US Equity Strategy research notes Research Title What if Fed relents on hikes for 2015> A little EPS upside. but more PE

rrection Buy the dig, but stick with strength. Secular growth of Tech & Health Care Catchng a falling knife> PE expansion s rare as the Fed hikes S&P EPS growth after the super.cycle The Seven Spans: Interest Rates, Oil Pnces & the Doran' 2Q EPS finishes with S&P at its top Good reasons to return to

2502300 $125 18.2x 16.7x $44 Date 16 Nov 2015 8 Nov 2015 1 Nov 2015 23 Oct 2015 Bloomberg Ticker DBUSHIFC DBUSBRTE DBUSCICG DBUSDMST Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its EFTA01476305 research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that th

8 to $125 on stronger dollar, lower oil assumptions We have long cautioned that every 10% appreciation in the dollar vs. mature currencies drags on S&P EPS growth by 2.5%. Every dime the Euro declines vs. USD hits S&P EPS by $1. Every $5/bbl oil price decline hits S&P EPS by $1, net of small benefits

0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.0% 4.2% 1.5% 2.9% 4.5% 4.0% -1.3% 2.7% 4.4% -0.6% 3.8% 3.1% -3.0% 0.1% EFTA01476509 US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 41 Figure 70: What to buy now (mid and small caps)? DB Buy-rated non-S&P 500 stocks in our OW industries with market cap > $800m, PE on 2015

heap stocks left: But what if the yield curve goes flat? 2015's S&P 500 tug-of-war intensifies: Dimmer EPS vs. brighter PE outlook The Hulk flexes, S&P EPS shrinks Is S&P ready for Fed hikes?: 10 FAQs Reaching for small caps, selectively: Prefer small Retailers vs. small Banks Tech Titans can overcome