Epstein Secrets

balances point to deficits of 210 kbd in 2017 and 90 kbd in 2018. We lower our WTI forecasts to average $47 this year and $50.bbl next year. We cut Brent to $50 this year and $52bbl in 2018. We now beleve oil stays in contango by yearend. but see a WTI forward anchor al $45.50 and S5 backwardation by

bits near zero correlation with all major equity markets around the world (Table 4). Table 4: Equities • weekly returns correlation Bitcoln .500 MSCI World HSCEI HSI NIFTY EURO STOXX 50 Nikkei Bitcoin IL 0.04 0.05 0.02 IMIliale rliarliC • 500 0.96 0.50 0.54 0.51 0.78 0.53 MSCI World

make the largest gain with close to 14%, closely followed by base metals and precious metals with 12% and 9% respectively. Our oil strategists see Brent at $120/bbl by year end, driven by higher demand as the global economy should improve sequentially towards the end of 2013. Agriculture prices are

asset class %. U Is unItedged into USD. H means hedged 2013E 2012 MSCI EM 15.0 17.4 EM Local Fl (U) 10.0 8.9 EMFX 10.0 7.5 GSCI 10.0 0.1 MSCI World 10.0 16.0 US HY 7.5 16.2 CEMBI 7.0 16.7 EMBIG 7.0 18.5 JACI 6.5 14.3 EU HY 6.0 25.0 US HY Loans 5.5 9.7 US KG 5.4 9.9 Gold 5.0 6.

re 70). Turkey along with India has the highest sensitivity to lower oil prices of any of the global equity markets in our view (Figure 71), so if Brent does finally move to a lower level in 2014, that would provide additional justification to overweight the market. Political factors have clearly e

, when we forecast that the US would outperform by 20-25% in 2013, as the figure to date is just under 30% and around 25% against the DM benchmark, MSCI World. We maintain our recommendation for investors to overweight DM against EM in 2014, but it has become a more difficult call as DM has outperformed E