Epstein Secrets

balances point to deficits of 210 kbd in 2017 and 90 kbd in 2018. We lower our WTI forecasts to average $47 this year and $50.bbl next year. We cut Brent to $50 this year and $52bbl in 2018. We now beleve oil stays in contango by yearend. but see a WTI forward anchor al $45.50 and S5 backwardation by

e long INR vs USD via options (current 30bps), long TRY vs ZAR and short CLP vs ARS. Otherwise, China data still kicking and we have a long bias In EM Asia Beyond the above risk factors, China data continues to show strength. 2Q GDP numbers surprised to the upside and the overall economic surprises for

licy likely to continue to be a compromise over the next couple of meetings, the best Norges Bank can hope for currently is that the correction in Brent crude lower will extend and weigh the NOK down. Near-term, and dependent on crude consolidating above/around $100/barrel, the re-assessment of the

upported. More importantly, despite continued US equity market outperformance, international investors have still favoured the Euro-area, Japan and EM Asia over the US in terms of flows. This is unlikely to continue. Chinese reserve accumulation should also slow down, not least because of measures by

rporates (CEMBI) 10.1% 9.5% 13.1% 21.0% 16.4% 15.4% Quarterly Averages Commodities Current 1204 1301 1302 1303 GSCI Index YID Return' Brent (Sibbl) 110 105 112 105 120 Energy -3.7% Gold (Stoz) 1733 1725 1750 1775 Precious Metals 8.7% Copper IS/metric ton) 7629 8300 8500

despite the likely volatility as the fiscal cliff is negotiated. Within equities, we stay underweight the US, and move most of the overweight into EM Asia. We have moved some of our credit overweight from the US to Europe. • Economics — The data flows continue to confirm that June/July was likely the