Epstein Secrets

.1 -10.4 -12.5 6.5 -1.4 4.0 7.5 -61.3 EFTA01464546 5.4 -7.5 -8.1 9 8 6 1 -1.5 -6.9 1.8 -5.0 6.0 -1.8 11.5 -1.4 11.2 4.6 11.6 Western Europe -59.4 -64.8 -88.4 -98.9 -112.8 -125.6 -118.5 -109.0 -93.9 -61.1 -60.8 -63.2 -66.4 Germany -29.1 -29.1 -35.9 -39.3 -45.8 -50.6 -47.9 -44.7 -43.0 -2

EFTA01464491 1.5% 2.0% Figure 6: Record Negative Correlation Between Dollar and Stocks Reversing Suggests Regime Change 2y correlation between USD TWI and S&P500 using ly rolling returns using levels Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7 EFTA01464492 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives .Fig

ity, and the European Union along with the euro area. This political and institutional evolution has coincided with an historically long peace in Western Europe. The geopolitical freeze imposed by US and Soviet occupation during the Cold War delivered the first 45 years of peace. But for the last 25 years,

rg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Index USDTWI PPP Implied 20% Band 100 110 120 130 60 70 80 90 Figure 7: Dollar leads productivity USD TWI (dev from PPP implied, 12q lead, lhs) US Nonfarm Productivity (dev from trend) (rhs) 10 20 30 40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Correl (since 1982): 51%

.0 4.7 1.4 -7.3 -9.1 -10.4 -12.5 6.5 -1.4 4.0 7.5 5.4 -7.5 -8.1 9.8 6.1 -1.5 -6.9 1.8 -5.0 6.0 -1.8 11.5 -1.4 11.2 4.6 11.6 Western Europe -59.4 -64.8 -88.4 -98.9 -112.8 -125.6 -118.5 -109.0 -93.9 -61.1 -60.8 -63.2 -66.4 Germany -29.1 -29.1 -35.9 -39.3 -45.8 -50.6 -47.9 -44.7 -43.0 -2

r has fallen substantially Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Figure 11: No clear relationship between USD TWI and UST purchases Figure 12: Net equity flows turn positive Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Page 2