Epstein Secrets

k off scenarios. As our Sentiment Survey shows, geopolitical risks are still one of the main risks for investors (Chart 24). What we like in EM In LatAm, we still like receiving rates in the belly of the Brazilian curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short te

al 10 year yield based on headline CPI 6 5 4 3 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 —US —Japan —Euro Area Source Bloomberg Chart 12: The term premium means that currencies maintain a positive spread between their 2 year and their 10 year interest 2Y10Y goverment bond y

organic lager volumes +3.0% & agrees to alliance with Anadolu Efes (trading +0.57%) Diageo reports sales growth that tops estimates led by gains in LatAm, Asia, Africa (trading +3.5%) BHP Billiton record iron ore production on Asia demand & expansions in Australia (trading -0.45%) Software AG (Germ

s (3rd time in 13 months debt has been downgraded by Moody's) European banks vow $1 trillion cuts in the next two years as recapitalization looms (Bloomberg<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/banks-in-europe-vow-l-trillion-shrinkage- amid-threats-of-recapitalization.html>) EU ban on naked CDS on so

ing a growing opportunity set for HAL that must be balanced against higher project risk. - Swirling currents in Latin America. The one soft spot is LatAm where margins should appreciably improve in 2015. Petrobras has agreed to re-tender the drilling contracts on lower activity levels, with costs rig

1.32 1.35 04 (Dec) 0.93 1.18 1.23 1.44 1.48 FY 3.15 3.95 4.00 5.10 5.20 Bloomberg EPS FY (s) 3.10 3.98 5.10 Source: Company data. Bloomberg. J.P. Morgan estimates. North America Equity Research 12 June 2014 Overweight HAL, HAL US Price: $66.94 A Price Target: $78.00 Previous: $77.0

however, heavy positioning and potential transitory increase in risk aversion could induce a temporary break in the appreciation trend. Figure 1: LatAm and Asia FX on overvaluation territory environment of reduced volatility. Nevertheless, as the deterioration of fundamentals slowly spreads from t

250bn u/weight 02 05 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP 08 11 Swiss Franc Is Last "Safe Hav

2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg Bankof America Merrill Lynch Global Rates, FX & E

ater. This time, we expect a sharp selloff with an eventual recovery. Our bearish view on LatAm credits in particular is driven by 1) positioning in LatAm is heavier than in EMEA or Asia — watch outflows from IG crossover investors who will rethink their EM IG investments; 2) their exposure to commoditi

the above mentioned global factors, for the last two years and the years 2013-2014 for the sake of comparison (Chart 64). We find that currencies in LatAm and EEMEA are more exposed to global factors than in Asia. Interestingly, LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in commodity prices