Epstein Secrets

nce on reinvestment policy* and interplay between rates and reinvestments Note: (*) Currently, the Fed reinvests its maturing holdings of MBS and Treasuries purchased during QE. Research Deutsche Bank [email protected] http://houseview.research.db.com TheHouseView Special — 9 December 2015 7

conditions have eased a bit [email protected] http://houseview.research.db.com TheHouseView Special — 9 December 2015 EFTA01476290 I At NAIRU, broader slack measures also diminished 2010 Note: (*) Our distance measures follow a speech by St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard on 17 July 20

the GPIF to increase their allocation to overseas bonds and equities, there is naturally a lot of interest in the potential for Japanese buying of Treasuries going forward. Here we try and quantify the potential in terms of three specific sectors: pensions; insurance and deposit taking institutions inclu

r model to assess the prospects for wage acceleration in the near future. If the unemployment rate remains stagnant at its present level, 5.5%, the NAIRU will not get breached and our model implies that wage inflation will not increase. By contrast, suppose that the unemployment rate continues its ra

has also been historically correlated with the US current account deficit as much of it was financed by the foreign official sector, which bought Treasuries for Official Reserves. The present current account deficit points to 25% of the lOy yield, so similar (55bps) but slightly higher BRP. Credit sprea

nflation in the US has moved up over the last three months and has a fair degree of catch up to do with the decline in unemployment relative to the NAIRU and rental vacancies. The dollar up cycle should have 10% to go medium term, but speed breakers are now in place to slow the pace. The US trade-wei