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has also been historically correlated with the US current account deficit as much of it was financed by the foreign official sector, which bought Treasuries for Official Reserves. The present current account deficit points to 25% of the lOy yield, so similar (55bps) but slightly higher BRP. Credit sprea
s Belgium Austria Finland Greece Portugal Ireland United Kingdom Denmark Norway Sweden Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand EEMEA Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Nigeria Poland Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates Asia (ex-Ja
Ses 2 Fea f = 2 22 3 sf SE a te ge < = 2 zs eer 8 = = 3 wn New Zealand Data as of December 31, 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg. Czech Republic South Africa 60 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014593 --- PAGE BREAK --- incorporates this view, as we are neutral on the euro, y
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014594 →e income. In the sections that follow, we review the specifics of each fixed income market. US Treasuries While 2016 began as a bumper year for US Treasuries, it ended in a rout. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, for example, reached an all-time low of just 1.36% by the middle of last year before joltin
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014599 →nks hold a 10% capital ratio. This plan would probably decrease the availability of leverage, and could also result in reduced demand for short-dated Treasuries in HQLA portfolios. Another risk to 30y swap spread normalization in particular would be a material increase in deficit spending as part of a fiscal
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014773 →stress may bring opportunities to buy dips. CEE capitalized the past five year much better, with fiscal consolidation in Hungary, balanced budget in Czech Republic, and low debt/GDP ratios in Poland. Also, the growth picture is much more rosy, making leverage much more manageable. Trade recommendation: Buy 50y
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014775 →Entities connected to both Treasuries and Czech Republic

Hungary
LOCATION
Denmark
LOCATION
Finland
LOCATION
Belgium
LOCATION
Norway
LOCATION
Romania
LOCATION
United Kingdom
LOCATION
Cyprus
LOCATION
European Union
ORGANIZATION
United States
LOCATION
Jeffrey Epstein
PERSON
Malaysia
LOCATION
Chile
LOCATION
New Zealand
LOCATION
Marc Rich
PERSONDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.
ORGANIZATION
Philippines
LOCATION
George W. Bush
PERSON
Columbia University
LOCATION
Prince Charles
PERSON