Epstein Secrets

Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, As of 12/30/11 Note: Debt Service is Debt payments as % of disposed° personal income Source: Federal Reserve Bank, ECB 4 J.P.Morgan EFTA_R1_02049746 EFTA02696368 GIO: Approach to Absolute Return Investing We are asset class agnostic TOP OPPORTUNISTIC INVE

its structured products or options exposures. Structured products and options are not insured by the Federal Deposit insurance Corporation (FDIC). the Federal Reserve Board, or any other governmental agency. In discussion of options and other strategies, results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cite

FX is ELMI+ in $. 16 2.0% Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 S&P 500 Sector Performance Utilities 14.8% Consumer Staples 10.5% Health Care 10.2% Consumer Discretionary 4.4% Energy 2.8% Information Technology 1.3% Telecommunication Services 0.8% S&P 500 0.0% Industrials -2.9%

1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Vertical lines indicate the peak in deleveraging in US and EA Source: : Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank Research US -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Figure 2: _and long term real rate dynamics Japan Euro area

5% share shrink. Ex. Energy & Financials, as much less y/y litigation expense at Banks, 2015 S&P EPS was up 6% or 10% ex. 4% FX drag. Growth led by Health Care and big consumer oriented Tech firms. We expect growth to slow at these two S&P segments, but remain key growth drivers. II2016E S&P EPS of $125 i

deserves a larger premium. ¢ We continue to like Healthcare as it offers solid long-term earnings prospects w

ly - the September report exaggerated the pace of improvement. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation stays slightly below or close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. UBS forecasts real GDP growth of 2.0% in 3Q 2012 (consensus: 1.8%) and 1.6% in 4Q 2012 (consensus: 1.9%). The Fed has added considerabl