Epstein Secrets

mberg European equities: switch to outright long Healthcare We switch our European sector pair trade preferr

d | 30 November 2016 921 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014452 --- PAGE BREAK --- Risks to trades Equity trades ¢ The risks to long divi basket & Pharma trades are a steepening of rates curves and better than expected growth outside of Europe causing investors to rotate out of bond proxies. Plus our a

higher oil would make Oil’s high DY sustainable. Healthcare is too cheap vs an improving sector growth outloo

rtant drugs in 2017. Chart 79: Healthcare PE relative back near market multiple and lowest since 2011 when patent cliff was at its worst Chart 78: Pharma’s improving growth outlook not reflected in PE 3 Year Sales, EBIT and EPS CAGR Majors and 12 month forward PE ratio 15% 20 1.70 ——HealthCare 12m fw

tax of overseas earnings of US firms’ subsidiaries at reduced rates. Non-Financials in the S&P hold at least $1.2tn in overseas cash (mostly Tech and Health Care). If half was used for buybacks, this could add 3% ($4) to S&P 500 EPS. A redux of 2004 where companies used 80% of cash for buybacks may be less lik

Similarly, as we discuss below, half of the repatriated cash following the 2004 Homeland Investment Act came from just 15 companies, predominantly in Pharma and Tech. Our own analysis of the S&P 500 (based on filings and estimates from our analysts) suggests that non-Financials in the S&P hold approximate