Epstein Secrets

Unfortunately, most concerns we expressed last year have been borne out, and are getting much worse (I spent the weekend reading legal documents on a Eurozone break-up, just in case). Like Don Quixote, Europe went on its journey for all the wrong reasons, adopting a half-pregnant monetary union to support a

iod of peace until 1945), so the idea of a united Europe would have seemed appealing in 1945. However, conditions for securing a lasting peace within Western Europe were arguably already in place by 1954. 3 A 2005 paper from Stanford raised expectations further by estimating theoretical wind power at 72 TW, 30x g

tem in 1992, or the collapse of Japan into deflation in the early 1990's. At the time of writing it is clear that the central banks of the USA, the Eurozone, Japan, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and others are all following their own significantly different policies, based primarily on experience and intu

cialist paths; almost all of the rest followed a route of import substitution behind high tariff barriers. Following rapid post war growth, most of Western Europe and North America went through a period in the fifties and sixties with full employment and ongoing labour shortages. Meanwhile the few poor or poo

ies from the IMF we calculate that German exports could be reduced by as much as EUR 3.3bn per year. In recent years, German exports to outside the Eurozone have grown as the economy has responded to weak demand in the single currency area. Germany's relatively strong growth compared the rest of the Eur

.0 4.7 1.4 -7.3 -9.1 -10.4 -12.5 6.5 -1.4 4.0 7.5 5.4 -7.5 -8.1 9.8 6.1 -1.5 -6.9 1.8 -5.0 6.0 -1.8 11.5 -1.4 11.2 4.6 11.6 Western Europe -59.4 -64.8 -88.4 -98.9 -112.8 -125.6 -118.5 -109.0 -93.9 -61.1 -60.8 -63.2 -66.4 Germany -29.1 -29.1 -35.9 -39.3 -45.8 -50.6 -47.9 -44.7 -43.0 -2

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

Return to long-term trend ¢ The Eurozone crisis abates. Financial market conditions recover, mitigating the drag from fiscal austerity. ¢ Growth in Western Europe turns decisively positive by early 2013 and the US economy grows above trend. & Negative scenario (Probability: 15%*) Recession ¢ There are three ke

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

012. We think that the risk that the Fed will take measures in addition to the extension of "Operation Twist" is still significant. e Large parts of Western Europe are in recession or stagnation. We expect the economies of the Eurozone and the UK to show mild improvement in 2H 2012. Still, economic activity is l

rmore, liability sovereigns explained that if the eurozone were to disband, Germany's role as the financial

to international real estate allocations is also evident in geographic allocations. Sovereigns prefer ‘safe haven’ markets such as North America and Western Europe when investing in overseas real estate, with developed markets leading sovereign citations for preferred real estate locations shown in figure 21. S