Epstein Secrets

s softer as well, as is credit. German economy minister warns that there will be a 'noticeably weaker economic dynamic" over the next six months. A Eurozone official is out reiterating that a decision on Greece is unlikely on Monday & the Guardian suggests it is due to 'acute differences" between the IMF

hter budget Leading European Sectors: Healthcare +0.47`1/0, Food/Bev +0.22%, Media +0.01% Lagging European Sectors: Insurance -1.74%, Banks -1.72%, Utilities -1.08% VZ expects lower 2012 capex — ACIW reaffirms forecast — BRKS guides down CBOU penny better — BXP 18% dividend increase — EGOV penny light D

cing back up this morning as Services PMIs from several European countries hit, with Spain, Germany and UK beating expectations. Hollande out saying Eurozone needs an exchange rate policy and can't allow Euro to fluctuate as markets see fit. Dell Board planned to meet last night to vote on a —$24B offer (

m, imports -6% m/m) • Indonesia's 4q GDP +6.11°A, y/y vs est of +6.2% (seeks 2013 GDP growth of 6.5%-6.8%) Leading European Sectors: Banks +1.09%, Utilities +0.98%, Healthcare +0.94% Lagging European Sectors: Telco -0.63%, Autos/Parts -0.61%, Tech -0.40% HOLX guides lower — TMK cuts top end — SWY names

perspective. Financials are now trading around median relative valuation levels. Healthcare PE relative is at the bottom of the historical range and Utilities relative PE is also close to the prior low hit in 2013. Food & Beverage still commands a large premium and PE- relative is 6-10% above the 2010 / 201

, PMI’s and consumer confidence pointing to a solid Q4 to follow. That quarter is currently tracking at 3.6% according to the Atlanta Fed. Chart 13: Eurozone PMI’s have picked up of late... Chart 14: US Consumer Confidence now at post-GFC highs 60.0 120 100 59.0 80 50.0 60 40 45.0 ———US Consumer Confidence

n for investors as we enter a busy year for European politics (see table opposite} is whether the populism train will gather pace or terminate at the Eurozone. Italy risks elevated, but risks two way and banks the bigger issue Although Italy goes to the polls this year, it is worthwhile starting with this

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

arnings growth. Our sector stance in the US Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials T Healthcare ndustrials Telecom Utilities aterials Viclelulsalel vy) vial ws Source: UBS Note: Past performance is not an indication of future returns. For further information please con

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

preferred cyclical sectors. We also like Energy. e We are cautious on Materials, where we expect margin pressure to continue, as well as Telecom and Utilities, due to high valuations. Strategic (1 to 2 years) °¢ We like medium-sized US companies, which should benefit from robust earnings growth in the lon