Epstein Secrets

than trend shifts. • Last week, we raised our USD/JPY forecasts from a 2013 range of 75.85 to a range of 80-90. We have always been sceptical that the Bank of Japan would be able to drive up Japanese inflation and drive down real yields versus the US to power USD/JPY higher throughout 2013, but there is no deny

3.2 2.7 1.6 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.5 24 Emerging Europe 4.8 2.5 2.5 0.6 14 1,8 2.4 2.6 3.6 3.0 5.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 Bulgaria 1.7 0.7 1.5 Czech Republic 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.3 -1.6 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.4 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.4 Hungary 1.6 -1.4 0.0 .1A -0.7 •1.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.

e appreciation of the yen, once again pushing the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ’s) 2% inflation target further into the futu

u of Labor Statistics BOE: Bank of England BOJ: Bank of Japan CAGR: compound annual growth rate CDS: credit de

Ses 2 Fea f = 2 22 3 sf SE a te ge < = 2 zs eer 8 = = 3 wn New Zealand Data as of December 31, 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg. Czech Republic South Africa 60 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014593 --- PAGE BREAK --- incorporates this view, as we are neutral on the euro, y

75 70 65 60 55 50 1/1/2010 5/1/2011 8/4/2012 = 1/1/2014) 5/1/2015 = 9/1/2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research true against the JPY given the Bank of Japan is pegging 10y JGB yields at zero. We are cognizant of the possibility that the willingness of Japanese investors — who have already bought record am

stress may bring opportunities to buy dips. CEE capitalized the past five year much better, with fiscal consolidation in Hungary, balanced budget in Czech Republic, and low debt/GDP ratios in Poland. Also, the growth picture is much more rosy, making leverage much more manageable. Trade recommendation: Buy 50y

lar to QE itself. Beyond that, this is another small step towards perceptions that monetary policy is no longer independent from fiscal policy, like the Bank of Japan’s joint statement with two government ministers last month. Nobody knows the tipping point at which these perceptions feed into much higher inflation e

15 41 0.5 1.5 2.0 25 46 28 26 25 Emerging Europe 48 2.6 2.6 + 24 13 0.4. 1.8) 27. 24. 3.7 / 64 5.0 60. 63 T Bulgaria wi 0 1.5 a a a we a a a a a a a Czech Republic d -11 0.9 -3.1 -08 -12 -13 21 1.0 43 24 34 29 24 Hungary 6 12 0.5 3.5 -0.9 -1.0 -10 1.0 15 8 44 55 58 47 Poland 43 23 1.61 24 16 0.5 0.5 4 1.34 23. 3