Epstein Secrets

production growth will likely also slow. Chart 27: High yield issuers hedged 7596 of their production this year in the case of high yield issuers North America producers - %of gas production hedged 80% $7.00 1 ill _ 70% $6.00 I $5.00 50% 60% 20% - . III $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 10°/ $1.00 40°4 30

ts may explain why Draghi gave up on the currency this week. But something has been lost in the process and the Euro could now appreciate freely if Eurozone data keeps improving. BoJ only dovish major central bank The BoJ left its policy unchanged this week and Governor Kuroda justified the current po

st all of the rest followed a route of import substitution behind high tariff barriers. Following rapid post war growth, most of Western Europe and North America went through a period in the fifties and sixties with full employment and ongoing labour shortages. Meanwhile the few poor or poorer countries that

tem in 1992, or the collapse of Japan into deflation in the early 1990's. At the time of writing it is clear that the central banks of the USA, the Eurozone, Japan, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and others are all following their own significantly different policies, based primarily on experience and intu

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

s related to Syria-Turkey is likely to ease supply concerns. This should keep the market focus on weak demand growth and strong crude oil output from North America, allowing the Brent price to temporarily reach USD 95/bbl. e A weaker USD, reduced economic tail risk for Europe, ongoing social turmoil in the Middl

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

out ratios in the US and Asia, while Europe has to consolidate balance sheets. Preference (6 months) Our market preferences for listed real estate* North America = Continental Europe | | = =i ues Japan| | OT =U HongKong — Sngpore | | tt (‘<‘é édT;S*é‘( C‘i‘Cédr:C*S Avswaia [| | |S = Old m New * This is our rel

rmore, liability sovereigns explained that if the eurozone were to disband, Germany's role as the financial

ortance of quality to international real estate allocations is also evident in geographic allocations. Sovereigns prefer ‘safe haven’ markets such as North America and Western Europe when investing in overseas real estate, with developed markets leading sovereign citations for preferred real estate locations sho

Unfortunately, most concerns we expressed last year have been borne out, and are getting much worse (I spent the weekend reading legal documents on a Eurozone break-up, just in case). Like Don Quixote, Europe went on its journey for all the wrong reasons, adopting a half-pregnant monetary union to support a

ment, food, economy, and population. He is the author of thirty books and more than three hundred papers on these subjects and has lectured widely in North America, Europe, and Asia. He is also noted by Foreign Policy magazine as #49 on its list of the 100 most influential thinkers in the world. Citations "Energ