Epstein Secrets

is starting to approach silver 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 3M-rolling annualized stdev of daily returns -Silver —Sltcoln —Gold Source Blomberg BoWAMm11 Lynch Gbbal Research A wide array of risks obscure the future of cryptocurrencles When examining the safety of any asset, volatility is no

ts may explain why Draghi gave up on the currency this week. But something has been lost in the process and the Euro could now appreciate freely if Eurozone data keeps improving. BoJ only dovish major central bank The BoJ left its policy unchanged this week and Governor Kuroda justified the current po

ico} ico} SSR ERE EERE ES SSR eRe EER EES Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 4 Global Cross Asset Strategy -

10 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Bankof America 2 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014441 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 15: Eurozone PMI's point to solid growth Chart 16: Japanese growth expected to accelerate in 2017 60.0 3.0 58.0 —_.,. = 2.0 Forecasts 56.0 54.0 1.0 52.0 50.0 0.0

d long RUB/ZAR. The former has dropped as the EUR has weakened against the USD. We continue to think that the Swedish economy is more robust than the Eurozone and that the Riksbank will sooner or later have to adjust monetary policy accordingly. We see a lot more room for this pair to move in 2017, particul

(SD) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg Chart 5: Financials valuations have recovered si

, PMI’s and consumer confidence pointing to a solid Q4 to follow. That quarter is currently tracking at 3.6% according to the Atlanta Fed. Chart 13: Eurozone PMI’s have picked up of late... Chart 14: US Consumer Confidence now at post-GFC highs 60.0 120 100 59.0 80 50.0 60 40 45.0 ———US Consumer Confidence

n for investors as we enter a busy year for European politics (see table opposite} is whether the populism train will gather pace or terminate at the Eurozone. Italy risks elevated, but risks two way and banks the bigger issue Although Italy goes to the polls this year, it is worthwhile starting with this

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit

r Es a 4 oe Ses 2 Fea f = 2 22 3 sf SE a te ge < = 2 zs eer 8 = = 3 wn New Zealand Data as of December 31, 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg. Czech Republic South Africa 60 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014593 --- PAGE BREAK --- incorporates this view, as we are neutra

osite —No-change line 35 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Bloomberg, UBS CIO, as of September 2012 Note: Past perfor

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

CY17 cY18 CY16 CY17 cY18 m@BofAML m= Consensus (Bloomberg, as of 15 Nov 2016) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch f

tem from abroad. Specifically, we see higher uncertainty over global trade, risk sentiment, and FX as a result of political transitions in the US and Eurozone. We consider multiple policy scenarios under a Trump presidency. Trump’s campaign promises have mixed implications for Japan. On a positive note dere

ad | 16 November 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014735 --- PAGE BREAK --- target. It is possible that Trump’s election could weaken fiscal discipline in the Eurozone over the medium term, but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB may disappoint in the December meeting by either not extending q

ance-decline line recently signaled for tactical USD strength and would turn outright bullish with a trend line break and new index highs. Chart 79: Bloomberg US dollar index, weekly chart with USD breadth measures MEBDXY Index - Last Price MISMAVG (200) on Close (BBDXY) LI9L47 Resistance: 1255 | A af" — ql a

h, July 2017. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Crypto

y explained by Puerto Rico. = Chinese trade growth moderated; deals announced during President Trump’s visit are unlikely to reduce trade deficit. = Eurozone data came in mixed relative to consensus expectations, but still points to above-trend growth in the region. 27 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025690 Source: Inv