Epstein Secrets

m the populist right. There are also question marks surrounding the outcome of peace negotiations with the FARC. Exports are expected to suffer as Venezuela's economic crises drags on. Combined with a muted outlook for oil prices, this suggests the COP will likely be the best short among Lat Am currenc

isocioa t0000 5000 0 20 5 'Figure 5: EUR/NOK and Crude oil lob 9.5 - 9.0 - 8,5 - 2 to - 7.5 - 7.0 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 —010,04 Brent, Close, USD, its —EUR/NOIC actual. Ito &wore DeoYene Bork Eitiomewg Fount* CP 30 40 50n 60c 70 80c 90 7gi 100 1102. 120 130 Figure 6: Cor

Peru 5.8 4.2 55 6.9 0.3 I§ 6.0 7.0 5.5 3.0 32 3.0 2.5 Uruguay 4.7 3.0 4.0 6.4 -1.8 A4 t 6.0 t 40 t 3.0 4 8.6 81 75 7.3 Venezuela 1.3 -1.0 2.5 2.3 41 0.0 2.5 2.0 25 52.9 572 58.2 35.0 Asia/Pacific 4.6 4.5 1 4.8 IS 5.3 22 4 5.3 t 50 4.8 32 3.3 29 33 Jap

ll as weaker supply growth, largely in Iraq and Libya. • Recent reports of a peace agreement in Libya between the rebels and the government caused Brent to fall by around 5%. We think a quick and full recovery in production is unlikely and we also think overall production capacity is now lower due t

9 4.3 4.5 01 6.7 Ecuador 8.0 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 41 3.5 Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 13 60 Uruguay 5.7 3S 4.0 11.8 21 Venezuela 4.2 5.0 0.0 10.1 0.6 Asla/Pacific Japan -0.7 1/ 0.1 5.3 02 Australia 2.1 3.5 2.5 51 2.6 New Zealand 1.3 2.6 21 4.1 2.3 Asa e

rporates (CEMBI) 10.1% 9.5% 13.1% 21.0% 16.4% 15.4% Quarterly Averages Commodities Current 1204 1301 1302 1303 GSCI Index YID Return' Brent (Sibbl) 110 105 112 105 120 Energy -3.7% Gold (Stoz) 1733 1725 1750 1775 Precious Metals 8.7% Copper IS/metric ton) 7629 8300 8500

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sed." Siluanov said the ruble is oversold and its current exchange rate would correlate to=the oil price of $60 per barrel. The global price of oil, Brent, traded around =70 a barrel on Tuesday. Russia's economic stability is important for the region.=lt is a major trading partner for Western Europe, s

4.8 3.0 5.5 5.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.1 5.1 5.4 4.7 Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 1.8 2.3 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.1 3.5 Peru Uruguay Venezuela Asia/Pacific 6.9 5.7 4.2 6.2 3.5 5.0 6.0 4.0 0.0 6.0 2.2 t -0.5 5.5 7.8 t 42 6.0 a 0.0 6.5 6.0 .4.0 6.0 4.3 0.0 5.0 4.0 3

make the largest gain with close to 14%, closely followed by base metals and precious metals with 12% and 9% respectively. Our oil strategists see Brent at $120/bbl by year end, driven by higher demand as the global economy should improve sequentially towards the end of 2013. Agriculture prices are

k, commodity prices low, and investment depressed. This together with a disorderly fiscal adjustment in Brazil and tighter economic restrictions in Venezuela and Argentina finally pushed the regional economy into recession in 2015. Further adjustment is likely to maintain negative growth in 2016, and a

hen modelled OPEC production of 32.4 mmb/d matches our calculated call on OPEC (i.e., the volume required from OPEC It o balance demand). Oil at a Brent price of USD45/bbl is below the 2016 national budget breakeven level for all of the ten countries assessed by our EMEA macro team, and also below t