Epstein Secrets

an oil price shock %decline GDP 0.0% Australian • U.K Euro land Japar• Brazil • Poland Hungary • • U.S. ChinaU • Indonesia IN Turkey • Philippines • Korea • India MI S. Africa Taiwan • Thailand Ar.. Si ■ Canada Mexico Malaysia • Argentina -1.0% -0.5% ISI Source: Bridgewater Associa

al risk across the Arab world has been something of a surprise, although conditions leading to it were well understood for years. As for problems in the European Monetary Union and the impact of tightening policy in Asia, they have been familiar refrains around here for months, and were central to our 2011 Outlook. The whol

ae} f= i} chile (1.2%) & I EM Russia (4.5%) Taiwan (12.2%) Korea (14.4%) Turkey (1.0%) Malaysia (2.5%) Thailand (2.3%} China (26.5%) Mexico (3.5%) Philippines (1.2%) Poland (1.1%) Indonesia (2.6%) India (8.3%) Brazil (7.7%) South Africa (7.1%) Data as of December 31, 2016. Note: Based on monthly data sin

n Central Bank EM: emerging market EMD: emerging market dollar debt EMLD: emerging market local debt EMEA: Europe, the Middle East and Africa EMU: European Monetary Union EPS: earnings per share ETF: exchange-traded fund FTSE: Financial Times Stock Exchange FX: Foreign Exchange GBP: British pound GDP: gross domest

25% • 2005 • 2011E 20% - 15% 10% 5% 0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1 2% 0% Taiwan Mexico China Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Empirical Research Partners. Philippines 2000 2007 2010 Source: UN Comtrade, Empirical Research Partners. To summarize, we expect today's margins to last a while longer, since relative costs

ession derailed them, leaving Italy with the same elevated debt burden they started with 20 years ago. I believe that eventually, the constituency of the European Monetary Union will have to change. However, my colleagues in J.P. Morgan Securities' economics group disagree. They believe that the EMU will survive intact, and b