Epstein Secrets

ew York Alan Ruskin Daniel Brehon Drausio Giacomelli Guilherme Marone Mauro Roca Singapore Sameer Goel Mallika Sachdeva Sydney John Horner Tokyo Taisuke Tanaka Head of FX Strategy Bilal Hafeez Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P

however, heavy positioning and potential transitory increase in risk aversion could induce a temporary break in the appreciation trend. Figure 1: LatAm and Asia FX on overvaluation territory environment of reduced volatility. Nevertheless, as the deterioration of fundamentals slowly spreads from t

ater. This time, we expect a sharp selloff with an eventual recovery. Our bearish view on LatAm credits in particular is driven by 1) positioning in LatAm is heavier than in EMEA or Asia — watch outflows from IG crossover investors who will rethink their EM IG investments; 2) their exposure to commoditi

Y reached 100 on the Brexit vote as we argued in $/¥’s eventual surge: Buy Nikkei O06 September 2016. In fact, the USD/JPY has stopped falling during Tokyo trading hours since the summer. Based on the decline of foreign yields and higher hedge costs, hedged US Treasuries and German bunds had lost nearly

the above mentioned global factors, for the last two years and the years 2013-2014 for the sake of comparison (Chart 64). We find that currencies in LatAm and EEMEA are more exposed to global factors than in Asia. Interestingly, LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in commodity prices

ternationally given commodity interlinkages. o European and Asian utilities offer the most abundant and attractive alpha opportunities. o Japan and Latam will be more trading markets over the near term. e Some structural changes will have a global impact (Section 4). o The shale gas and coal price wa

tilities’ long-term fuel mix and therefore cost base. For example, Kansai Electric Power, which has the largest exposure to nuclear generation after Tokyo Electric, stopped paying dividends after the nuclear shutdown. Every 1% change in its nuclear fleet utilization rate will affect earning by almost 10