Epstein Secrets

ra. The yen has fallen markedly; competitor nations such as Korea have seen their currencies weaken, while suppliers to Japan such as Thailand and Malaysia have seen their currencies strengthen. Through all of this the dollar has marched higher even with the market wavering over an early move to taper

12 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 NZD/CAD Model - uses Dairy Futures, NatGas, Crude, CRB, rate differential, USD TWI, VIX Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 EFTA01464441 16 May 2813 FX Blueprint: Dashing Buck While both crosses have now fallen a long way relativ

- 8.47 8.49 8.54 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Hungary Indonesia IDR/USD 9,686 9,950 9,900 9,850 (Fwd. Rates) Malaysia MYR/USD 3.10 3.07 3.05 3.02 (Fwd. Rates) 3.12 3.13 3.16 Philippines PHP/USD 40.7 40.4 39.9 39.3 (Fwd. Rates) 40.7 40.7 40.8 Singapore SGD/USD 1

EFTA01464491 1.5% 2.0% Figure 6: Record Negative Correlation Between Dollar and Stocks Reversing Suggests Regime Change 2y correlation between USD TWI and S&P500 using ly rolling returns using levels Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7 EFTA01464492 28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives .Fig

land Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates Asia (ex-Japan) China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka EFTA01476183 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezu

rg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Index USDTWI PPP Implied 20% Band 100 110 120 130 60 70 80 90 Figure 7: Dollar leads productivity USD TWI (dev from PPP implied, 12q lead, lhs) US Nonfarm Productivity (dev from trend) (rhs) 10 20 30 40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Correl (since 1982): 51%

60.6 61.8 63.9 Indonesia USD/IDR 10278 10500 10500 10000 (Fwd. Rates) Philippines USD/PHP 43.3 42.6 42.3 41.7 (Fwd. Rates) - 10723 11000 11412 Malaysia USD/MYR 3.243.173.153.13 EFTA01464312 (Fwd. Rates) - 3.26 3.27 3.30 - 43.3 43.4 43.6 Singapore USD/SGD 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.30 (Fwd. Rates) - 1.2

r has fallen substantially Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Figure 11: No clear relationship between USD TWI and UST purchases Figure 12: Net equity flows turn positive Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Source: DB FX Research and US Treasury Page 2