Epstein Secrets

nd Hungary • • U.S. ChinaU • Indonesia IN Turkey • Philippines • Korea • India MI S. Africa Taiwan • Thailand Ar.. Si ■ Canada Mexico Malaysia • Argentina -1.0% -0.5% ISI Source: Bridgewater Associates. ISI Group 0.0% 0.5% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: Energy Infor

al risk across the Arab world has been something of a surprise, although conditions leading to it were well understood for years. As for problems in the European Monetary Union and the impact of tightening policy in Asia, they have been familiar refrains around here for months, and were central to our 2011 Outlook. The whol

urce: Investment Strategy Group, Emerging Advisors Group, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. both China and the US, such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia, would be particularly vulnerable. While the net effect of these competing forces is positive in our base case, the risks are tilted to the downside

n Central Bank EM: emerging market EMD: emerging market dollar debt EMLD: emerging market local debt EMEA: Europe, the Middle East and Africa EMU: European Monetary Union EPS: earnings per share ETF: exchange-traded fund FTSE: Financial Times Stock Exchange FX: Foreign Exchange GBP: British pound GDP: gross domest

ina and the IEA) Hourly compensation for production workers Share of US rate, 2005 vs. 2011 30% Share of US imports of intermediate goods from China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, percent 25% • 2005 • 2011E 20% - 15% 10% 5% 0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1 2% 0% Taiwan Mexico China Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

ession derailed them, leaving Italy with the same elevated debt burden they started with 20 years ago. I believe that eventually, the constituency of the European Monetary Union will have to change. However, my colleagues in J.P. Morgan Securities' economics group disagree. They believe that the EMU will survive intact, and b