Epstein Secrets

n. As within DM, we see a lot of divergences within EM and prefer to focus on under-owned markets with good domestic demand story such as Mexico and Malaysia. On the contrary we underweight export oriented countries in Asia such as Korea and Taiwan. Credit • Spread moves were mixed this week, as local t

ns have moved back to pm-crisis levels, and are thus more "normal", where local supply and demand conditions drive prices. We are short gasoline vs. Brent, short lead and zinc vs. base metals and long palladium vs. platinum. We also have small outright long positions in US natural gas and in Brent, as

vs. Brent, short lead and zinc vs. base metals and long palladium vs. platinum. We also have small outright long positions in US natural gas and in Brent, as well as in commodity carry. • We expect the gasoline spread to Brent to narrow further over the coming weeks as refinery maintenance season come

be artificially suppressed by controls. When looking at 16 countries with severe capital controls based on IMF indicators (Algeria, Angola, China, Malaysia, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire. India. Morocco, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Swaziland. Tanzania, Togo, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan), we find that bitcoin

balances point to deficits of 210 kbd in 2017 and 90 kbd in 2018. We lower our WTI forecasts to average $47 this year and $50.bbl next year. We cut Brent to $50 this year and $52bbl in 2018. We now beleve oil stays in contango by yearend. but see a WTI forward anchor al $45.50 and S5 backwardation by

in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless "Japan" or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Malaysia: Deutsche Bank AG and/or its affiliate(s) may maintain positions in the securities referred to herein and may from time to time offer those securiti

isocioa t0000 5000 0 20 5 'Figure 5: EUR/NOK and Crude oil lob 9.5 - 9.0 - 8,5 - 2 to - 7.5 - 7.0 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 —010,04 Brent, Close, USD, its —EUR/NOIC actual. Ito &wore DeoYene Bork Eitiomewg Fount* CP 30 40 50n 60c 70 80c 90 7gi 100 1102. 120 130 Figure 6: Cor

ra. The yen has fallen markedly; competitor nations such as Korea have seen their currencies weaken, while suppliers to Japan such as Thailand and Malaysia have seen their currencies strengthen. Through all of this the dollar has marched higher even with the market wavering over an early move to taper

licy likely to continue to be a compromise over the next couple of meetings, the best Norges Bank can hope for currently is that the correction in Brent crude lower will extend and weigh the NOK down. Near-term, and dependent on crude consolidating above/around $100/barrel, the re-assessment of the

3.5 Indonesia 5.8 49 SI 6.0 4.1 5.,Q 5.0 45 5.3 54 62 4.6 4.6 Korea 3.0 38 40 3.6 3.8 21 t 4.7 4.0 4.0 IA 1.6 t 2.3 2.9 Malaysia 4.7 55 5.1 7.6 3.3 Ill 5.5 5.5 50 30 3.3 3.5 5.2 Philippines 7.2 6.0 6.4 6.1 4.9 LA 5.7 5.7 65 3.5 4.0 3.6 3.8 Ssigapore

ll as weaker supply growth, largely in Iraq and Libya. • Recent reports of a peace agreement in Libya between the rebels and the government caused Brent to fall by around 5%. We think a quick and full recovery in production is unlikely and we also think overall production capacity is now lower due t

.0 61 7.1 Hong Kong 50 1.2 3.2 2A -OA India 6.5 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.3 Indonesia 6.5 5/ 3.5 4.7 t ILO 1 Korea 3.6 2.3 3.2 3.5 1.1 Malaysia 5.1 LOT 3.71' 5.8 51 Philippines 3.8 5.3 35 121 01 Singapore 4.9 11 1 2.5 1 9.51 417 Taman 4.0 1.2 3.4 1.6 2.2 Thafazd 0.1

rporates (CEMBI) 10.1% 9.5% 13.1% 21.0% 16.4% 15.4% Quarterly Averages Commodities Current 1204 1301 1302 1303 GSCI Index YID Return' Brent (Sibbl) 110 105 112 105 120 Energy -3.7% Gold (Stoz) 1733 1725 1750 1775 Precious Metals 8.7% Copper IS/metric ton) 7629 8300 8500

ives <http://www=airpano.com/360Degree-VirtualTour.php?3D=Maldives> <=> • =a href="http://www.airpano.com/360Degree-VirtualTour.php?3D=Kuala-Lump=r-Malaysia" title="http://www.airpano.com/360Degree-VirtualTour.php?3D=3DKuala-Lumpur-Malaysia" target="_blank">Kuala- Lumpur, * 4> * Malaysia 40 • Grimsv

sed." Siluanov said the ruble is oversold and its current exchange rate would correlate to=the oil price of $60 per barrel. The global price of oil, Brent, traded around =70 a barrel on Tuesday. Russia's economic stability is important for the region.=lt is a major trading partner for Western Europe, s

6.5 5.7 4.5 6.0 4.9 j 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.5 4.5 4.3 3.9 4.6 Korea 3.6 2.2 3.01 1.1 02 15 2.51 4.0 4.5 4.5t 2.4 1.74 2.44 3.0 4 Malaysia 5.1 5.3 5.1 6.3 3.6 6,5 5.0 4.5 4.5 5.0 1.7 1.2 2.3 2.6 Philippines 3.8 6.4 4.8 5.0 52 43 t 4.5 4.9 t 5.3 t 5.3 t 2.9 2.3

make the largest gain with close to 14%, closely followed by base metals and precious metals with 12% and 9% respectively. Our oil strategists see Brent at $120/bbl by year end, driven by higher demand as the global economy should improve sequentially towards the end of 2013. Agriculture prices are

2017 to be about the same as the last couple of years. There may be further slowing of China, but India and Indonesia could see growth accelerate, Malaysia and the Philippines could maintain trend growth, and the rest of Asia could see less disappointment. Indeed, our forecast for the next two years as

hen modelled OPEC production of 32.4 mmb/d matches our calculated call on OPEC (i.e., the volume required from OPEC It o balance demand). Oil at a Brent price of USD45/bbl is below the 2016 national budget breakeven level for all of the ten countries assessed by our EMEA macro team, and also below t

preciated 28 India — range bound until post-election outlook clearer 29 Indonesia — first stress test since 1997; equities expensive 31 Malaysia — low-beta but fundamentally without merit 33 Thailand — tempting only to a tactical contrarian 34 Philippines — superior fundamentals more

re 70). Turkey along with India has the highest sensitivity to lower oil prices of any of the global equity markets in our view (Figure 71), so if Brent does finally move to a lower level in 2014, that would provide additional justification to overweight the market. Political factors have clearly e