Epstein Secrets

. The most recent previous period of dollar strength occurred during the global financial crisis, which resulted in a massive flight to safety into US Treasury securities. The current period is different: The US economy is arguably the healthiest of the major industrialized economies, and the Fed is still

eighted dollar (the current move from last summer) in the Federal Reserve Board's macroeconomic model of the US economy, often just referred to as FRB/US. All else being equal, the simulated shock causes real GDP growth to decrease by about -0.5 percentage points (or 50 basis points) and -0.8 percent

. The most recent previous period of dollar strength occurred during the global financial crisis, which resulted in a massive flight to safety into US Treasury securities. The current period is different: The US economy is arguably the healthiest of the major industrialized economies, and the Fed is still

eighted dollar (the current move from last summer) in the Federal Reserve Board's macroeconomic model of the US economy, often just referred to as FRB/US. All else being equal, the simulated shock causes real GDP growth to decrease by about -0.5 percentage points (or 50 basis points) and -0.8 percent

ieve that 2016 should see a partial convergence of US and European bond yields. Our end-year forecasts see the 10-year Bund around 1.1% and 10-year US Treasury at 2.5% (although our macro forecast—with the Fed on a slow but steady uptrend — may be consistent with a somewhat higher yield by end 2016). In Eu

he BOJ and the ECB are at very different stages of the business cycle and are pursuing expansionary monetary policies to lift inflation. What does FRB/US say? To gauge the implications of the strengthening dollar for monetary policy, we simulated a one-time, 16% shock to the real tradeweighted dolla