Epstein Secrets

. The most recent previous period of dollar strength occurred during the global financial crisis, which resulted in a massive flight to safety into US Treasury securities. The current period is different: The US economy is arguably the healthiest of the major industrialized economies, and the Fed is still

the Fed recently "shallowed out" its trajectory for interest rates over the next few years; the other reason being the Fed's lower estimate of the NAIRU. Figure 5: Dollar strength will weigh on net exports for the foreseeable future to %99y 15 2 1975 199) 1565 1993 1995 2003 2005 2010 2015 .*&

. The most recent previous period of dollar strength occurred during the global financial crisis, which resulted in a massive flight to safety into US Treasury securities. The current period is different: The US economy is arguably the healthiest of the major industrialized economies, and the Fed is still

the Fed recently "shallowed out" its trajectory for interest rates over the next few years; the other reason being the Fed's lower estimate of the NAIRU. Figure 5: Dollar strength will weigh on net exports for the foreseeable future to %99y 15 1 2 1975 199) 1565 1993 1995 2003 2005 2010 2015 .

ieve that 2016 should see a partial convergence of US and European bond yields. Our end-year forecasts see the 10-year Bund around 1.1% and 10-year US Treasury at 2.5% (although our macro forecast—with the Fed on a slow but steady uptrend — may be consistent with a somewhat higher yield by end 2016). In Eu

th pick up over the period ahead. We see the unemployment rate falling into the mid-4% area over the next couple years, putting it noticeably below NAIRU, but not by enough to effect more than a gradual pickup in wage and price inflation. We see core PCE inflation returning to near 2% two years hence