Epstein Secrets

Year Average Yield Weighted Average Treasury Yields (%) 0% . T T T T T T T T T T 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 KP Source: US Treasury. i USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 165 Effective Interest Rates: If Debt Levels & Interest Rates Rise Dramatically Beyond 2010, Net Interest

s Helped Fuel It, Too, as They Reached For Yield Without Questioning AAA Ratings of A Subprime-Backed Investments Investors picked up 25-35bps over U.S. Treasuries with comparable maturity, typically levered 10:1 and generated 2.5-3.5% yield, meaningful against an 8% annual yield target Illustrative AAA-Rated S

Consider Review Tax Rates Changing MEE Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures*/ eee Broaden Tax Base Note: *Tax subsidies / expenditures are losses to the U.S. Treasury from granting certain deductions, exemptions, or credits (such i as those on mortgage interest payments and employer-sponsored health insurance payme

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Note: Real home prices & building costs are inflation-adjusted. Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University. Ce USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 184 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_020933 Banks & Other Mortgage Originators Helped Fuel Housing Bubble

mplications as demographics and debt are likely to constrain long-term global economic growth. The Challenge of High Valuations In 1998, professors Robert Shiller and John Campbell con- ceived the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, which averages earnings over a 10-year period to minimize the impa

% 10.7% NASDAQ 6496 6728 3.6% 25.0% TOPIX 1675 1766 5.4% 16.3% KOSPI 2394 2523 5.4% 24.5% Emerging Markets 1082 1119 3.5% 29.8% Fixed Income 2-Year US Treasury Note 1.49% 1.60% 12 41 10-Year US Treasury Note 2.33% 2.38% 5 -7 BarCap US Agg Corp Sprd 1.01% 0.95% -6 -28 BarCap US Corp HY Sprd 3.47% 3.38% -9 -71

Institution has called the “fiscal fights of the Obama administration.” The first fiscal fight resulted in the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) downgrade of US Treasury debt in August 2011. The equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, dropped about 19% between April and October of 2011. Taken together, the

ion and averaged within each decile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Datastream, Robert Shiller. Valuation Decile US Equities: Life in the Fast Lane US stocks have been driving in the fast lane since 2009. Over this nearly eight-year period,