Epstein Secrets

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terity has been more contractionary than many had expected. A huge gap in competitiveness between the core and the periphery is at the root of the Eurozone's problems. Ger- man labor costs rose by +18% in 2000-2009, significantly less than Italy's +35% and Spain's +50%. Our estimates suggest that Italy

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit

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important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

Dubai: Research is issued by UBS AG Dubai Branch within the DIFC, is intended for professional clients only and is no for onward distribution within the United Arab Emirates. France: This publication is distributed by UBS (France) S.A., French "société anonyme" with share capital of € 125.726.944, 69, boulevard Haussmann