the decline of several key fields. The longer- term outlook is most strongly correlated with the successful (i.e. timely) development of the massive Johan Sverdrup field and the management of declines across the broader mature asset base. On our base case assumes declines of 12%, and estimate a 1% revision to

, the longer-term viability of North Sea production growth is most strongly correlated with the successful (i.e. timely) development of the massive Johan Sverdrup field which was recently sanctioned in February. We estimate North Sea crude production to hold broadly flat (-2.5 MMb/d) through 2016 before decli