ona-term production growth challenged from a decline in near-term exploration spend particularly in offshore and unconventional plays. DB estimates Ecopetrol upstream capex lower -17.5% YoY in 2015 (largely exploration-driven) while Pacific Rubiales upstream spend is expected lower 55% (largely explorati

2016 from -200 mboe/d in 2013 at which point Pacific Rubiales' contract will not be renewed. While a potential agreement is still possible between Ecopetrol arid Pacific Rubiales or another third-party entity, a significant amount of capital investment is still required to build/re-build infrastructure

macro environment. Following the market repricing last week, all these names are now trading meaningfully wider, including Pemex at 255bp (+25bp), Ecopetrol at 375 (+15), Vale at 310 (+20), Codelco at 235 (+20). While we view this move as one in the right direction, it still falls short of where it need