will likely push vacancy above historic averages to the upper 5% range and cause rent growth to slip below 2% per year (see Exhibit 15). Exhibit 15 Apartment Vacancies and Rent Growth 8% 6% : 4% Eftect.ve Rent Growth '2% 4% '6% Jik., i !! Forecast g • 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 8% 0% 1996 1998