on direct government support We have revised our base-case cash flow forecasts and now assume lower capex (from USD27bn to USD25bn in 2015 and from USD22bn to USD19bn onwards), 2.0% CAGR of domestic E&P production (vs. 4.0%) and domestic fuel prices increasing by 6% p.a. with no restrictions (vs. 5% p.

plan by 2016 and kept its 2016 production guidance unchanged. The 30% capex reduction for 2016 was most likely above consensus -we were forecasting USD22bn for that year. The opex reduction is more difficult to reconcile with our estimates and general consensus due to the lack of disclosure on historic

plan by 2016 and kept its 2016 production guidance unchanged. The 30% capex reduction for 2016 was most likely above consensus -we were forecasting USD22bn for that year. The opex reduction is more difficult to reconcile with our estimates and general consensus due to the lack of disclosure on historic