Core imports —Consumer confidence (rhs) <100 = pessimism Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Source: Haver Analytics. TurkStat. CBT. end Deutsche Bank 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 Deutsche Bank Bank 4 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0070007 CONFI

s r % IP° 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 DB uncertainty band 2% Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: Have; Analytic,. CBT. TurkStat. and Doutscho Bank 2.2 2.0 1.8 e.... 1.6 1.4 Deutsche Sank 7 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0070010 CONFIDENTIAL