vel. • The economics of non-OPEC pre-FID projects shows a decline in full-cycle costs from USD 53/bbl to USD 46/bbl over the last twelve months. Deepwater reserves still contribute the most reserves by resource theme, and we see USD 65/bbl as the marginal cost of new supply from oil sands projects.

am FCF alone in 2017E is enough to cover almost half the dividend, at c$7bn. • Decline rates to 2025 are lowest in the sector at c2%, in part from Deepwater's growth potential — most particularly Brazil. • Further restructuring potential from divesting Shell's 'long tail' of largely mature territories i