ted this year, but a widening current account deficit and stronger USD will constrain gains versus the euro and dollar. We are moderately bearish EUR/GBP and GBP/USD, forecasting 80p and 1.54 by end-year respectively. • As an outright trade we prefer buying GBP versus CAD, on which we are more bear

igher probability of Corbyn becoming PM vs. other factors such as economic damage due to less favorable trading relationships, etc.? a. Strategy — EUR/GBP forecast in no deal Brexit + Corbyn would be 1.03 in 2019 (due to initial concern about market unfriendly policies) and 0.98 in 2020 (as the fiscal

e US and Euro-area. This goes a long way to explain the lag in EUR/GBP versus cyclical indicators (chart 3). This is reflected in our conservative EUR/GBP forecasts: we see a slow grind lower to 0.80 by the end of the year, with GBP/USD revisiting the low 1.50s on the back of a strong USD. Deutsche

this report, w= show EUR trends and technical breadth is still weak vs DM and may bounce v= EM. • EUR trends in DM are mostly down, except=EUR/JPY. EUR/GBP is forming a top. EUR/Oil has less downside left than real=zed. • Established downtrends in EUR/RUB and EU=/ZAR could bounce and should be sold. EU