prehensive reform agenda 2017 budget calls for higher oil prices Capital outflows overshadow fiscal reforms Sustaining the shift in energy policy Fiscal Balance program - counting costs, reaping benefits Macro assumptions Macro table FVFx strategy: MW EXD. favor Fx forward steepenc,i- Commodities: of newts

3.0% 12.63 13.00 39 500 4.0% Japan 2.8% 2.5% Latin America (MSCI in USD) 2125 3.1% 18.88 17.00 112 1 1900 -7.5% China 2.6% 2.5% Fiscal Balance in% 0 I GDP 2016 2017 Sovereign Rates Current' Next 3 • Yield Move' 12 Month For ecast (March 2017) 12 Month Return (March 2017) USA 1.89%

12 4, 1900 -7.5% China 2.6% 2.5% Sovereign Rates Current' Nexl 3 • Yield Move' 12 Month Forecast 12 Month Return (March 2017) (March 2017) Fiscal Balance in% 0 I GDP 2016 2017 USA 1.89% Euroland (German Bund) 0.18% R., 4, 2.00% 0.36% 1.0% -1.3% USA -2.8% -2.9% Euroland -1.9% -1.9% U

croeconomic adjustment brings imbalances to low mid-single =igit levels moves to cUS$60/bbl, from our =revious assessment of =US$50/bbl. The revised Fiscal Balance program exposes the budget to =olatility in oil prices. Still, there are four ways in which =uthorities can improve on fiscal dynamics: 1) front-loa