would vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump would win the US presidential election in 2016, least of all pollsters (and many in markets). As Michael Hartnett argues, the rise of populism can be linked to what he refers to as Peak Inequality and Peak Globalisation. Trump and the Brexit campaign tapped into

eas Quarterly Q1 Top 10 Ideas Strategy Top 10 US Ideas — 1Q17 The backdrop for risk assets has changed dramatically over the past year. As Michael Hartnett pointed out, 2016 saw global interest rates fall to 5,000-year lows and the likely end of what has been the greatest bull market in bonds ever. We ex