From: Sent: To: Subject: Attachments: Daniel Sabba 1/9/2015 1:53:22 AM Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Fw: EOD Commodities Note - 8 Jan [C] image001.jpg; image002.png Importance: High Classification: Confidential Vol in crude continues to collapse From: Prateek Jain Sent: 01/08/2015 09:15 PM GMT Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 8 Jan Oil A relatively quiet day in Crude today. We hovered around unchanged for most of the day before selling off in the afternoon and testing 50$ BRE again. However, we failed to break it and rallied towards unchanged for the close, perhaps off the back of some index buying. Newswise, Feb Azeri BTC loadings will be up a whopping 11% m/o/m to 821kbd. Interestingly, there is apparently some floating storage interest happening as well, as some major phys trading firms have booked long term tankers for this as long term charter rates are cheaper and thus make the economics of storage look good. The window was again weak with ekofisk and brent offered down a bit. In other news, RTRS cites GCC "sources" saying that there is no chance of OPEC cut even though oil has dipped to 50$..Stateside, we learned yesterday that the Seaway Twin is moving 100% heavy crude. Furthermore, USGC diffs weakened again, with LLS now trading 1$ above WTI. In the morning WTI spreads were quite bid, but that abated towards the end of the day. The arb did however stay bid throughout the day, as the fact that LLS/WT is tight at 1$ means that there is more room BRE to discount vs LLS so as to place those Jan and Feb overhang cargoes in the US. In politics land, the Senate committee voted 13-9 to have Keystone "bypass" presidential approval. So if the Senate passes this bill (which it should as it has 60 co sponsors), Obama may have to veto it. It is not clear that the Senate has 67 votes needed to overturn the veto, so this should be interesting to follow...In products land, distillate bounced back a bit after yesterday's post stats ugly showing, perhaps off the realization that the stats didn't add up along with the extremely cold weather giving NG a (rare) bid as well... Oil Vols Another day of carnage in oil vols today. Early morning NY vols were down 0.4-0.5 through the curve, but a one way selling streak started just before the open and all the bids out there started getting hit. As an example Dec5 atm straddles started the day 1465/1505, were 1405/1450 at 9am, and were 1350/1390 later in the day. Within 2 hours of open, vols were down about 3 vols across the curve..and stayed there for most of the day till about 1:30pm when futures took a quick leg lower.. prompt vols traded 1.5% higher than close at that time and Jun5 was up 2% from the lows. However, with a quick rally back vols started fading again and ended 1.5-2.5 lower. Wings got smashed again and put skew collapsed quickly. 8000 lots of $40puts in WTI Mar15 were sold on the screen, which is quite an impressive volume outside floor trading.. G15 H15 M15 Z15 Z16 WTI (/change) 50.40% -1.60% 45.50% -2.40% 41.40% -2.10% 35.15% -1.60% 28.60% -2.00% BRE (/change) 44.00% -2.60% 43.70% -1.10% 38.20% -2.60% 33.10% -2.15% 28.50% -1.80% Index No rhyme or reason to flat price action today. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030856

Energy up, precious down, ags down, softs up, base mixed. Contributing to the choppy action was day one the SPGS and BCOM index rebalance and it was quite choppy during the closing bell. Estimated rebalance numbers are next to today's performance grid. Only 4 more days to goo.......Sean Kemery + NGGS + CLH5 + COH5 + XBG5 + HOG5 + QSG5 12.949 149.33 152.03 1133.98 1170.50 1490.00 precious + GCGS + SIH5 + PLF5 11207.50 116.335 $1221.70 grains + KWH5 + W H5 + C H5 + S H5 + SMH5 + BOH5 $607% $567 $394% s1048% $347.20 $33.76 meats + LCJ5 + FCH5 + LHJ5 161.725 216.300 180.300 softs + CTH5 + SBH5 + KCH5 + CCH5 $60.56 $14.88 $176.90 $2986 base + HGH5 1276.95 LMCADS03 $6104.00 LMAHDSOS $1832.00 LMNIDSO3 s15550.00 LMZSDS03 $2160.00 +.078 +.25 - 14 +,22 +.51 +5.00 -3.20 -.209 +1.00 -12% -12% -2 -8 -6.80 +.60 -3.000 -4.025 -1.575 +. 13 +,10 +1.85 +74 +1.10 -11.00 +42.00 +27.00 +2.72% +.51% -.27% +. 16% +.30% +1.03% -.26% -1.26% +.08% -1.98% -2.16% -.50% -176% 1-1.92% +1.81% 1.82% -1.83% -1.92% +.22% +.68% +1.06% +2.54% +.40% -.18% +2.35% -- +1.27% Commodity WTI Crude Brent Crude Heating Oil ULSD Unleaded Gas RBOB Natural Gas Gas Oil Aluminum ( primary ) Copper LME Copper CME Nickel Zinc Lead Gold Silver Wheat Wheat(HRW - Hard red winter) Cocoa Coffee 'C' Corn Cotton No.2 Soybean Sugar Soy Meal Soy Oil Feeder Cattle Live Cattle Lean Hog Base Metals 3m Ivls Al $1832 Cu $6101 Zn $2160 Ni $15,550 Pb $1851 dod change +$42 -$11 +$27 +$0 +$1 support $1800 $6000 $2125 $15,000 $1830 resistance $1900 $6200 $2200 $15,650 $1900 Total 14,801 46,197 6,713 12,303 18,340 (13,566) (16,404) 393 (305) (4,213) (6,504) 484 (7,599) 2,671 (10,993) (2,921) 204 (17,223) (18,625) 4,515 5,065 (8,165) 1,917 (2,228) 1,064 (14,602) (2,759) The base complex was up in the morning, with most metals rallying around 12:30, retracing in the afternoon then rallying to the close. Gains in stock markets, Fed confidence in the US economy and the increasing likelihood of aggressive stimulus in Europe are holding up the complex, but the re-wieghting of commodity indexes is likely to result n a sell off in Nickel Ali and Zinc between 8-14 Jan. Aluminium prices recovered as shorts were covered. Commerzban xpects to see a further rebound in coming days. Copper prices are suffering due to the sell off in the energ HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030857

market. Nitaxis sees the Chinese Stare Reserve Bureau cutting its purchases from 600-700 kMT in 2014 to ~300 kMT in 2015 as domestic supply catches up with demand. Zinc open interest is looking very high leading Macquarie to suggest that prices may be going down this quarter. Shanghai Aluminium on warrant stocks are down 3.52% to 46.9 kMT. LME Aluminium on warrant stocks are flat at 1852.2 KMT. Shanghai Copper on warrant stocks are up 0.97% to 31.1 kMT. LME Copper stocks are up 0.67% to 155.1 KMT. LME Nickel stocks are down 1.21% to 324.4 kMT. Copper Vols are up 0.28% in the front, Ali Vols unch, Nickel Vols are unch in the front, up 0.27% in the back, Lead and Zinc Vols unch Upcoming Data 8/1-EC Consumer Confidence-Surv -10.9, Actual -10.9, Prior -10.9 8/1- US Initial Jobless Claims-Surv 290k, Actual 294k, Prior 298k Regards, Prateek Please access the link for disclaimer: http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html Deutsche Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/doddfrank This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030858