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anovic's book is an excellent and factual place to start this very important conversation. In 2008 the leadership of the European Union (EU) allowed Cyprus join their consortium even though it was really only a Mediterranean offshore-banking center, partially occupied by Turkey since 1974, with a popul
he Cyprus deal fatally undermined depositor confidence, thus making bank runs in other countries more likely. Certainly Cyprus and its paymasters in the European Central Bank have broken a taboo of the common European currency by imposing controls on the flow of capital into and out of the country, albeit "temporarily."
ens. But that would be an open invitation to Greeks to take their remaining euros out of the banks. So the government could impose capital controls. Cyprus has had these for two years without leaving the euro, but that was done in concert with its partners. If Greece ever got to this stage — a parallel
only being kept out of the abyss by a debt restructure in 2012. And under that restructure it now owes money mainly to other European governments, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF. These official creditors have slashed interest rates and stretched out maturities, but not enough. With a debt stock of 175% of G
gger a cut-off from funding by early 2013 and a possible gradual exit later. Portugal and Ireland should remain on track with their bailout packages, Cyprus will likely get a new package and Slovenia may ask for help soon. A Positive scenario (Probability: 15%*) Return to macro stability ¢ Bond yields ar
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025255 →tion of US Treasury and German Bund yields are important for EM fixed income spreads, especially for USD- and EUR-denominated bonds. Key date: Dec 6, European Central Bank meeting Capital flows The European debt crisis may lead to further periods of outflows and weaker prices, which could offer attractive entry levels
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025275 →Entities connected to both Cyprus and the European Central Bank

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