Epstein Secrets

lly, attention in the CDS market has been focussed on the index rolls into Series 18 of the CDX and 17 of the iTraxx this week. Among other changes, Cyprus replaces Greece in the SovX (see Global CDS Indices, March 19). Foreign Exchange A familiar explanation for recent dollar strength, the March patte

vely long in EM local markets, favouring Poland, South Africa and Brazil. • Equities — We exit our OWs in EM vs. DM, our overweight in MSCI BRICs vs MSCI EM and Cyclical vs. Defensive sectors globally. • Credit — Stay with a range of credit overweights: Long US, EM and Europe. • Foreign exchange — Carr

Netherlands Slovakia Finland Austria Belgium Denmark Sweden Luxembourg Lithuania Ireland Italy Spain Slovenia Portugal Malta Latvia Cyprus Total EFTA01477396 Global Fixed Income Combing the Field for Yield Powerful Flows to U.S. 1,000 200 400 600 800 -800 -600 -400 -200 0

% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 4Q03 1Q05 2006 3Q07 4Q08 1010 2Q11 3Q12 4013 1Q15 Average EM Growth Premium (LHS) (AVG) Average EM Growth Premium (LHS) MSCI EM (local) - S&P 500 Index (RHS) — Emerging market equities have benefitted from superior economic growth over the developed markets in recent years.

weight. • Credit - We OW covered bonds in the Euro periphery over senior bank bonds and subordinated vs senior bank bonds in the core. • Currencies - Cyprus to have minimal further impact on EUR, but a ECB rate cut would push it a few cents lower versus the • Commodities - Stay long Brent and short gasoli

such as Mexico and Malaysia. See "Consensus Asset Allocation", Adrian Mowat and team, Mar 26th. Open overweights in Mexican and Malaysia equities vs MSCI EM. • For long-term investors we just released our quarterly publication "Trade opportunities for long term investors" Mar 27. We monetize risk premia i

weight. • Credit - We OW covered bonds in the Euro periphery over senior bank bonds and subordinated vs senior bank bonds in the core. • Currencies - Cyprus to have minimal further impact on EUR, but a ECB rate cut would push it a few cents lower versus the dollar. • Commodities - Stay long Brent and shor

such as Mexico and Malaysia. See "Consensus Asset Allocation", Adrian Mowat and team, Mar 26th. Open overweights in Mexican and Malaysia equities vs MSCI EM. • For long-term investors we just released our quarterly publication "Trade opportunities for long term investors" Mar 27. We monetize risk premia i