Epstein Secrets

OVERSIGHT_014575 --- PAGE BREAK --- Exhibit 41: European Commission Industrial Confidence Survey Eurozone business s

titative easing through December 2017. Meanwhile, the European Commission has endorsed a moderate fiscal easing of 0.5% of

” Second, to what extent will the rise of populism influence policies in the Eurozone? Here, Germany will probably provide a litmus test. Chancellor Angela Merkel and her coalition government are likely to respond to recent terrorist attacks there by proposing a stronger police and military presence, according

rorist suspects have already been arrested among them.°* With German elections scheduled for September 2017, it remains to be seen whether Chancellor Merkel will adjust her immigration policy. 28 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014561 --- PAGE BREAK --- While populism is on the rise and

for September 2017, it remains to be seen whether Chancellor Merkel will adjust her immigration policy. 28 | Goldman

n politics. Will Europe follow the route to populism (revolt from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets by the end of 2017 from a Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the Euro area’s two largest economies. We think investors will demand a higher risk premium until the French Elections in May

est political risk event for European (and possibly global) equity markets in 2017. By 22 October 2017: German Federal elections Current Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced that she intends to stand for re- election. Current polls have Merkel’s CDU ahead followed by SDP with the euro- sceptic Alternative fu

ck-up in EU Consumer Confidence should boost Media 0.9 0 0.85 r 0.95 09 °8 -10 0.75 0.85 15 07 08 === Stoxx Media Price relative -20 0.65 0.75 ———European Commission Consumer _5¢ 0.6 Confidence Index 0.7 emmee Stoxx Media-relative to Tech 0.55 -30 0.65 a NS © RS ee ee et ee He Hote Hoe HESOE FPS GF WT SF CF CE

asset class also received a boost last week when the European Commission submitted a proposal for AT1 coupons to be priori

ancial markets. Our central case is that centre right President is elected in France (with Francois Fillon now the official Republican candidate) and Merkel is returned at the head of a coalition government in Germany. Chart 19: German polls show a consistent lead for Merkel’s CDU party Chart 20: Fillon